Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 100
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Average Early, Fast/Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 CCA Oaks was a small but very high quality Grade 1 field. Most of the major players in the division were in the race. R heat Lighting (who is back in training for Todd Pletcher), Turbulent Descent, Zazu, and St. Johns River were missing, but all but R Heat Lighting have been beaten by horses in this field on dirt.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - In my review of the Acorn Stakes, I suggested that It's Tricky had moved to the head of the division (at least until R Heat Lighting gets a chance to show where she fits). In the CCA Oaks she did nothing to change that view. IMO, the $10.60 payoff was a gift. It's Tricky stalked 3w first turn, 2w second turn, and slowly wore down pace setting Plum Pretty late in an excellent performance.
2. Plum Pretty - 2w first turn, set the pace in hand while It's Tricky remained close, very game until deep stretch. Plum Pretty is probably as good as anyone going 8F or 8.5F, but 9F does not appear to be her optimal distance at this stage.
3. Royal Delta - 3w first turn while trailing the field, rallied 2w second turn, swung out, but could not threaten the top two. IMO Royal Delta was over bet off an easy trip win at Pimlico in the Black Eyed Susan. However, she missed some training heading into this race, could be sharper for the Alabama, and may make it more of a race at 10F.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Delaware Handicap - July 16th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 2, 3+ Fillies and Mares, 10F, Dirt, Delaware Park
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 104
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Fast Late
Track Condition and Bias: The rail may not have been the best part of the track
Race Comments: IMO the Delaware Handicap deserves Grade 1 status. The large purse typically attracts a very strong field of fillies and mares and this year was no different. While this field was not especially deep in talent, both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are outstanding, if not great mares. They put on quite a show.
I came away with mixed feelings about which of the two is the better horse right now. Blind Luck seems to be the faster horse late and gets the best of her rival unless the pace is slow or she is given just too much to do late. But this time I think had Ramon Dominguez moved aggressively just a tad sooner on Havre de Grace, he may have been able to hold her off. Clearly he was hoping to save some horse for the finish, but Havre de Grace did not go out after the finish like a horse that was "done" at the wire. So I suspect had he moved hard just a little sooner he may have put a bigger gap between himself and Blind Luck turning for home and finished just as well late. Harve de Grace has a tactical advantage as the first mover, but you have to use it to take advantage of it. All I can say is I can hardly wait to see the rematch to find out more.
Notable Performances:
1. Blind Luck - settled near the back of the pack outside, moved a little earlier than usual on the backstretch to stay within striking distance, settled again, made an impressive 3 wide move to get close to Havre de Grace turning for home and outgamed her rival in deep stretch in a terrific performance.
2. Havre de Grace - settled into 3rd position, was 3 then 2 wide first turn, moved 3 then 2 wide on the second turn to take over without being asked for her best, seemed to wait on Blind Luck slightly until the quarter pole even though that one was already being hard ridden to gain on her, and then was outgamed late while finishing on the inside in a terrific performance.
3. Life At Ten - set a mildly pressured pace while on the inside and tired badly. She's not nearly what she used to be, but the rail may not have been the best part of the track. In any event, she was never going to contend against the top two.
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 104
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Fast Late
Track Condition and Bias: The rail may not have been the best part of the track
Race Comments: IMO the Delaware Handicap deserves Grade 1 status. The large purse typically attracts a very strong field of fillies and mares and this year was no different. While this field was not especially deep in talent, both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are outstanding, if not great mares. They put on quite a show.
I came away with mixed feelings about which of the two is the better horse right now. Blind Luck seems to be the faster horse late and gets the best of her rival unless the pace is slow or she is given just too much to do late. But this time I think had Ramon Dominguez moved aggressively just a tad sooner on Havre de Grace, he may have been able to hold her off. Clearly he was hoping to save some horse for the finish, but Havre de Grace did not go out after the finish like a horse that was "done" at the wire. So I suspect had he moved hard just a little sooner he may have put a bigger gap between himself and Blind Luck turning for home and finished just as well late. Harve de Grace has a tactical advantage as the first mover, but you have to use it to take advantage of it. All I can say is I can hardly wait to see the rematch to find out more.
Notable Performances:
1. Blind Luck - settled near the back of the pack outside, moved a little earlier than usual on the backstretch to stay within striking distance, settled again, made an impressive 3 wide move to get close to Havre de Grace turning for home and outgamed her rival in deep stretch in a terrific performance.
2. Havre de Grace - settled into 3rd position, was 3 then 2 wide first turn, moved 3 then 2 wide on the second turn to take over without being asked for her best, seemed to wait on Blind Luck slightly until the quarter pole even though that one was already being hard ridden to gain on her, and then was outgamed late while finishing on the inside in a terrific performance.
3. Life At Ten - set a mildly pressured pace while on the inside and tired badly. She's not nearly what she used to be, but the rail may not have been the best part of the track. In any event, she was never going to contend against the top two.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Princess Rooney Handicap - July 9th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, Fillies and Mares, 6F, Dirt, Calder
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 99
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 96
Pace: Very Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Drying out track rated as GD seemed Honest
Race Comments: The Princess Rooney is often a very strong Grade 1 sprint for fillies and mares, but this year's edition came up a little weak from a quality perspective. Other than Sassy Image, Champagne d'Oro (who was racing off a layoff) and perhaps Derwin's Star, there weren't any competitors with Graded Stakes caliber credentials.
The pace was blistering fast. Nearly everyone that raced close up early tired badly. Every horse in the race made some kind of move into serious contention at some point (either early, coming out of the turn, or late). So while the race may not have been up to normal Grade 1 Princess Rooney standards, it was a very competitively run race and almost certainly better than most final time speed figures would suggest.
Notable Performances:
1. Sassy Image - looked hopelessly beaten while very wide into the stretch but got up very late on the far outside.
2. Musical Romance - well off the pace, 3 or 4 wide turn, split horses mid stretch to take command, caught late.
3. Indulgence - well off the pace, 2 wide turn to rally into contention, briefly waited for room behind horses, made a sharp move to the outside mid stretch to make her run, but was outfinished
4. Stephanie Got Even - saved ground, rallied up the rail into contention, but was outfinished
5. Champagne d'Oro - sat a couple of lengths behind the 3 way battle up front while probably still too close to the hot pace, remained inside but off the rail, made a bid between horses mid stretch but weakened. This could set her up for a top effort at Saratoga (or elsewhere) 2nd off the layoff.
6. Jehan - well off the pace 3 wide, swung out 5-6 wide into the stretch, took the lead, but was outfinished
7. Cosmo Girl - hard used inside setting the pace, hung around until mid stretch. Should be tough against lesser.
8. Derwin's Star - in good position off the pace, moved outside Champagne d'Oro on the turn, swung 4 wide late turn to get into contention but weakened
9. Bella Moneta - hard used stalking the pace in the 2W, tired
10. Don'ttalktome - hard used stalking the pace 3W, tired
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 99
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 96
Pace: Very Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Drying out track rated as GD seemed Honest
Race Comments: The Princess Rooney is often a very strong Grade 1 sprint for fillies and mares, but this year's edition came up a little weak from a quality perspective. Other than Sassy Image, Champagne d'Oro (who was racing off a layoff) and perhaps Derwin's Star, there weren't any competitors with Graded Stakes caliber credentials.
The pace was blistering fast. Nearly everyone that raced close up early tired badly. Every horse in the race made some kind of move into serious contention at some point (either early, coming out of the turn, or late). So while the race may not have been up to normal Grade 1 Princess Rooney standards, it was a very competitively run race and almost certainly better than most final time speed figures would suggest.
Notable Performances:
1. Sassy Image - looked hopelessly beaten while very wide into the stretch but got up very late on the far outside.
2. Musical Romance - well off the pace, 3 or 4 wide turn, split horses mid stretch to take command, caught late.
3. Indulgence - well off the pace, 2 wide turn to rally into contention, briefly waited for room behind horses, made a sharp move to the outside mid stretch to make her run, but was outfinished
4. Stephanie Got Even - saved ground, rallied up the rail into contention, but was outfinished
5. Champagne d'Oro - sat a couple of lengths behind the 3 way battle up front while probably still too close to the hot pace, remained inside but off the rail, made a bid between horses mid stretch but weakened. This could set her up for a top effort at Saratoga (or elsewhere) 2nd off the layoff.
6. Jehan - well off the pace 3 wide, swung out 5-6 wide into the stretch, took the lead, but was outfinished
7. Cosmo Girl - hard used inside setting the pace, hung around until mid stretch. Should be tough against lesser.
8. Derwin's Star - in good position off the pace, moved outside Champagne d'Oro on the turn, swung 4 wide late turn to get into contention but weakened
9. Bella Moneta - hard used stalking the pace in the 2W, tired
10. Don'ttalktome - hard used stalking the pace 3W, tired
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
The Prioress - July 4th 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 6F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 100
Race Class Rating: 94
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 95
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite the Grade 1 designation, The Prioress was more of a solid Grade 2 prep for the typically deep and strong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga next month. The field was loaded with quality early speed and the expected fast pace compromised the chances of several of the contenders. No one really distinguished themselves in this race.
Notable Performances:
1. Her Smile - rated off the fast pace off the rail, swung out a little for the stretch drive, ducked back to the rail in the stretch, took the lead, and held Pomeroy's Pistol safe.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - rated off the fast pace 2/3w, came out further late turn, finished OK
3. Roman Treasure - bobbled slightly at the start, set a fast pressured pace inside and tired.
4. Quantum Miss - stalked the fast pace just outside Roman Treasure and was starting to weaken when her rider lost the whip.
5. Alienation - rated just off the fast pace 3w, moved on the turn to stay with the top two, poked a head in front, but weakened.
6. Our Year - hard used chasing the fast pace, remained in contention for about 3 furlongs, tired, and was not used through the stretch. This will look like a very ugly line in her PPs, but she was overmatched in this spot and can be competitive in ALW races
Race Class Par: 100
Race Class Rating: 94
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 95
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite the Grade 1 designation, The Prioress was more of a solid Grade 2 prep for the typically deep and strong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga next month. The field was loaded with quality early speed and the expected fast pace compromised the chances of several of the contenders. No one really distinguished themselves in this race.
Notable Performances:
1. Her Smile - rated off the fast pace off the rail, swung out a little for the stretch drive, ducked back to the rail in the stretch, took the lead, and held Pomeroy's Pistol safe.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - rated off the fast pace 2/3w, came out further late turn, finished OK
3. Roman Treasure - bobbled slightly at the start, set a fast pressured pace inside and tired.
4. Quantum Miss - stalked the fast pace just outside Roman Treasure and was starting to weaken when her rider lost the whip.
5. Alienation - rated just off the fast pace 3w, moved on the turn to stay with the top two, poked a head in front, but weakened.
6. Our Year - hard used chasing the fast pace, remained in contention for about 3 furlongs, tired, and was not used through the stretch. This will look like a very ugly line in her PPs, but she was overmatched in this spot and can be competitive in ALW races
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