Stephen Foster Handicap - June 18th, 2011

Race Conditions:          Grade 1, 3+, 9F, Dirt, Churchill Downs

Race Class Par:                            111 
Race Class Rating:                        106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating:      103

Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late

Track Bias:  The track was sloppy and sealed for races 1-8, upgraded to good for race 10, and upgraded to fast for the Stephen Foster.  Given the changing track conditions, it's difficult to come to a strong conclusion about a track bias, but it did appear that a few jockeys avoided the rail instead of saving ground.  Horses that raced well out on the track didn't appear to be disadvantaged despite the ground loss. It will probably be worth while following horses that raced on the rail to see if they come back with improved performances. It wasn't death in there, but it may not have been the best place to be. The track may have had some moisture in it despite being rated fast.  

Race Comments: The 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap was more of a very deep Grade 2 event featuring many horses of similar ability than a legitimate high level Grade 1.

Notable Performances:

1. Pool Play inside but off the rail first turn, swung out and started his rally very wide mid second turn, looped the field and wound up 9 wide or more late turn, up late. Pool Play has been a Grade 3 turf performer (at best) prior to his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster. He may have found a new and better home on dirt, but I'd like to see one more before  being certain.    

2. Mission Impazible was 4 then 3 wide first turn just off the pace from the 11 post, stalked the pace of Regal Ransom wide second turn without being used, took the lead, repulsed a long strong bid from Duke of Mischief through the stretch and just failed to hold the winner off.   


3. Apart inside but off the rail, worked his way outside not far off the pace, rallied outside Mission Impazible, was in tight between horses at a couple points through the stretch while making his bid and finished OK.     


4. Duke of Mischief settled near the back of the pack while 3 wide first turn, made a huge 5 then 6 wide bid second turn to put a head in front mid stretch,  but hung late.    


5. Giant Oak settled at the back of the pack 4 then 3 wide first turn, circled very wide around the second turn and was 7 or 8 wide late turn while making his bid, but did not have enough late while hanging.   


6. Flat Out saved ground the whole way, made a very nice bid along the rail to get into serious contention mid stretch, but was out finished.   If a determination about a rail bias can be made prior to this one's next effort, he might be worth following.


7. Crown of Thorns went for the early lead along the rail, backed out and moved off the rail while inside behind horses, swung out for the drive, but didn't have much.  This one seems to prefer synthetics.