Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 112
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Very Fast Early; Slow Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: The 2011 Forego Stakes was a fairly deep and even matched field, but it lacked true Grade 1 quality sprinters. It was more like a Grade 2 quality field. The very fast early pace set it up for the closers.
Notable Performances:
1. Jackson Bend - Settled near the back of the pack well off the very fast pace, stayed on the rail on the backstretch, moved 2w mid turn to begin his rally, rallied between horses and drew off. Jackson Bend has found a home as a sprinter, but he's also had two excellent trips in a row. He's very sharp, but he'll probably be a good bet against at some point because he's not quite as good as he looks.
2. Jersey Town - Rated inside behind the dueling leaders, 2w turn, came out 4w for the stretch drive, but was out finished. Jersey town had a tricky trip to evaluate. While he was in a great position relative to the duelers, he was also relatively close to the very fast early pace.
3. Aiekenite - Trailed the field while well out on the track on the backstretch, move 4w on the turn, swung out late turn, finished OK on the far outside.
4. Hamazing Destiny - Dueled outside Sidney's Candy in very fractions, hung tough until the last furlong in a good effort. Hamazing Destiny has rated and finished well going short on other occasions. Had he rated here, IMO he would have been right there at the finish. He should be able to beat a very good field with an easier lead or by rating off a very fast pace.
5. Golddigger's Boy - Raced near the rear of the pack, 3w turn, made up some ground.
6. Escrow Kid - Close up chasing the early leaders while wide, hard used 3w to challenge on the turn, tired through the stretch. Escrow Kid had a tough trip being close to the fast pace and wide. He ran fairly well, but he'll probably need a little softer to get into the winners circle.
7. Regal Ransom - Chased the pace on the outside, 3w turn, swung out 5w into the stretch, no response, tired late.
8. Sidney's Candy - Moved up on the inside to contest the early pace, battled along the rail in very fast fractions, but tired in the stretch. Sidney's Candy is a versatile horse, but he does his best running when able to control the pace in middle distance races against a little weaker.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
The Woodward - September 3, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 111
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 111
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: In the 2011 Woodward, Havre de Grace put herself on the short list of great mares that have beaten Grade 1 older males over a route of ground. While the quality of the field was not up to the standards of some of the Woodwards of the past, Flat Out appears to be a legitimate Grade 1 older horse. Beating him was no easy task. It took a great mare to do that. Time will tell whether the connections will try the much deeper waters of the Breeders Cup Classic later this year.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled behind horses 3w then 4w first turn, move to challenge 3w second turn, wore down Rule and held the advantage over Flat Out. While Havre de Grace is slowly building a resume befitting a great race mare, I'm not entirely convinced she's better than Flat Out. Her advantageous style keeps her out of duels, but more importantly it often gives her first run over deeper closers when the pace is modest or slow. That advantage contributed to her wins over Blind Luck and may have been the difference in the Woodward. Don't get me wrong, this is great mare with the potential to put herself on the short list of all time greats, but if her connections decide to try the boys in the Classic, she will probably face more competitive circumstances.
2. Flat Out - Settled near the back of the pack, raced 3w on the first turn, rallied 3w on the second turn, got up for the place but could not catch the winner while finishing OK. Not only am I not entirely convinced that Havre de Grace is better than him, I am also not entirely convinced that Tizway will be as effective going 10F as he is going 8F and 9F. Flat Out has not been tested going 10F, but at this stage I have to think he's going to be a major player in the Classic.
3. Rule - Set a modest pace on the inside and held to mid stretch.
4. Mission Impazible - Inside just behind the pace early, moved out 2w to stalk Rule the entire way, weakened late.
6. Gaint Oak - Raced much closer than usual while 2w on both turns, swung out in the stretch, but didn't have his usual kick.
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 111
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 111
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: In the 2011 Woodward, Havre de Grace put herself on the short list of great mares that have beaten Grade 1 older males over a route of ground. While the quality of the field was not up to the standards of some of the Woodwards of the past, Flat Out appears to be a legitimate Grade 1 older horse. Beating him was no easy task. It took a great mare to do that. Time will tell whether the connections will try the much deeper waters of the Breeders Cup Classic later this year.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled behind horses 3w then 4w first turn, move to challenge 3w second turn, wore down Rule and held the advantage over Flat Out. While Havre de Grace is slowly building a resume befitting a great race mare, I'm not entirely convinced she's better than Flat Out. Her advantageous style keeps her out of duels, but more importantly it often gives her first run over deeper closers when the pace is modest or slow. That advantage contributed to her wins over Blind Luck and may have been the difference in the Woodward. Don't get me wrong, this is great mare with the potential to put herself on the short list of all time greats, but if her connections decide to try the boys in the Classic, she will probably face more competitive circumstances.
2. Flat Out - Settled near the back of the pack, raced 3w on the first turn, rallied 3w on the second turn, got up for the place but could not catch the winner while finishing OK. Not only am I not entirely convinced that Havre de Grace is better than him, I am also not entirely convinced that Tizway will be as effective going 10F as he is going 8F and 9F. Flat Out has not been tested going 10F, but at this stage I have to think he's going to be a major player in the Classic.
3. Rule - Set a modest pace on the inside and held to mid stretch.
4. Mission Impazible - Inside just behind the pace early, moved out 2w to stalk Rule the entire way, weakened late.
6. Gaint Oak - Raced much closer than usual while 2w on both turns, swung out in the stretch, but didn't have his usual kick.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
The Travers - August 27, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 10F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102
Pace: Very Fast Early/Average Middle/Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 Travers brought together several of the leading 3YOs in the division, but sub par performances from Shackleford and Coil force me to rate the overall quality of this race as well below average, especially considering that most of the evidence indicates that the crop of routers itself has been on the weak side throughout the spring and summer.
Notable Performances:
1. Stay Thirsty - Showed speed right from the start, raced between horses into the first turn while 2w, allowed Shackleford to take the lead on the backstretch, stalked 2w into the second turn, took the lead and held his advantage. Stay Thirsty has developed nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer. He was much the best here forcing the fast pace and holding the advantage.
2. Rattlesnake Bridge - Dropped back early, raced 2w first turn, slowly worked his way forward on the backstretch, swung 3w on the second turn, then out 4w late turn and finished OK for the runner up spot.
3. J W Blue - Off a beat slow, trailed early, race 2w first turn, moved 3w and then 4w second turn, out 5w, finished OK for the show.
4. Ruler on Ice - Hustled from the gate to get a forward position, used again to maintain position and race with the leaders, dropped back a bit and appeared finished on the second turn, tried to rally again late but raced evenly. IMO, Ruler on Ice was unnecessarily used in the fast pace early. That's two races in a row (see Haskell notes) that may be a little better than they look. While he's probably not a a high level Grade 1 horse, IMO Ruler on Ice is generally underrated and would be especially dangerous on a wet track in the right field.
5. Moonshine Mullin - Race 3w first turn not too far off the fast pace, made a strong bid 3w second turn and weakened. A better effort than it looks.
6. Shackleford - Raced 3w 1st turn, took over on the backstretch and dropped to the inside, weakened late turn and then tired late. Shackleford had a pretty tough trip losing ground while racing with the leaders in a fast pace. That goes double if the outside paths weren't the best place to be like I suspect. However, he's had a very tough campaign with a lot of tough stretch drives. He looks like a tired horse in need of a freshening.
7. Coil - Was over bet off his good trip in the Haskell (see Haskell notes), but showed very little here. This is not the first Bob Baffert horse I've seen run a big race off the plane and then go way off form.
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102
Pace: Very Fast Early/Average Middle/Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 Travers brought together several of the leading 3YOs in the division, but sub par performances from Shackleford and Coil force me to rate the overall quality of this race as well below average, especially considering that most of the evidence indicates that the crop of routers itself has been on the weak side throughout the spring and summer.
Notable Performances:
1. Stay Thirsty - Showed speed right from the start, raced between horses into the first turn while 2w, allowed Shackleford to take the lead on the backstretch, stalked 2w into the second turn, took the lead and held his advantage. Stay Thirsty has developed nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer. He was much the best here forcing the fast pace and holding the advantage.
2. Rattlesnake Bridge - Dropped back early, raced 2w first turn, slowly worked his way forward on the backstretch, swung 3w on the second turn, then out 4w late turn and finished OK for the runner up spot.
3. J W Blue - Off a beat slow, trailed early, race 2w first turn, moved 3w and then 4w second turn, out 5w, finished OK for the show.
4. Ruler on Ice - Hustled from the gate to get a forward position, used again to maintain position and race with the leaders, dropped back a bit and appeared finished on the second turn, tried to rally again late but raced evenly. IMO, Ruler on Ice was unnecessarily used in the fast pace early. That's two races in a row (see Haskell notes) that may be a little better than they look. While he's probably not a a high level Grade 1 horse, IMO Ruler on Ice is generally underrated and would be especially dangerous on a wet track in the right field.
5. Moonshine Mullin - Race 3w first turn not too far off the fast pace, made a strong bid 3w second turn and weakened. A better effort than it looks.
6. Shackleford - Raced 3w 1st turn, took over on the backstretch and dropped to the inside, weakened late turn and then tired late. Shackleford had a pretty tough trip losing ground while racing with the leaders in a fast pace. That goes double if the outside paths weren't the best place to be like I suspect. However, he's had a very tough campaign with a lot of tough stretch drives. He looks like a tired horse in need of a freshening.
7. Coil - Was over bet off his good trip in the Haskell (see Haskell notes), but showed very little here. This is not the first Bob Baffert horse I've seen run a big race off the plane and then go way off form.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The Kings Bishop - August 27, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 108
Race Class Rating: 108
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early/Slow Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 King's Bishop was a solid and deep Grade 1 sprint race for 3 YO colts that included last year's 2YO champion, Uncle Mo. While Uncle Mo wasn't triumphant in his long awaited return, he returned to the top form he displayed last year, missing by a nose in a very good race.
Notable Performances:
1. Caleb's Posse - Dropped back early inside, raced on the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung well out onto the track entering the stretch and closed strongly to just get up. Caleb's Posse is a quality 3YO sprinter, but he got a pretty good trip here.
2. Uncle Mo - Raced well out on the track early on the backstretch behind the early duel, slowly worked his way to about 3 or 4 wide, raced 3w on the turn, came out 4w late turn, rallied to take the lead, drifted in through the stretch, responded to left handed whipping and just missed while finishing well.
Some people were disappointed by the loss, but this was an excellent return. IMO, he was as good as he's ever been. The 64K question going forward is whether he was a great 2 year old that hasn't developed or a great horse whose development was temporarily stalled by some health issues. We'll find out in his next couple of starts.
3. Justin Philip - Dropped back early, raced 2w then 3w on the turn, swung out and finished OK.
4. Dominus - Raced inside behind the early duel, stayed on the rail on the turn, swung out into the stretch but was out finished by the top three. He only picked up the tiring duelers despite a fairly perfect trip. Dominus may be a little better at middle distances against slightly weaker where he can control the pace.
5. Flashpoint - Hustled to showed speed from the inside, dueled with two others while on the rail, tired about mid stretch. Flashpoint looked like the fastest horse early and the track seemed to be playing to inside speed. So this was a somewhat disappointing effort despite the fast pace.
6. Poseidon's Warrior - Pressed the fast pace from the outside, raced 3w on the turn, and tired through the stretch. This was a very tough trip. He pressed the fast pace while losing ground and racing on what was probably not the best part of the race track. Poseidon's Warrior should be able to hand all but the very best 3YO sprinters with a better trip.
7. Runflatout - Dueled between horses in a fast pace and tired through the stretch.
Race Class Par: 108
Race Class Rating: 108
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early/Slow Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 King's Bishop was a solid and deep Grade 1 sprint race for 3 YO colts that included last year's 2YO champion, Uncle Mo. While Uncle Mo wasn't triumphant in his long awaited return, he returned to the top form he displayed last year, missing by a nose in a very good race.
Notable Performances:
1. Caleb's Posse - Dropped back early inside, raced on the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung well out onto the track entering the stretch and closed strongly to just get up. Caleb's Posse is a quality 3YO sprinter, but he got a pretty good trip here.
2. Uncle Mo - Raced well out on the track early on the backstretch behind the early duel, slowly worked his way to about 3 or 4 wide, raced 3w on the turn, came out 4w late turn, rallied to take the lead, drifted in through the stretch, responded to left handed whipping and just missed while finishing well.
Some people were disappointed by the loss, but this was an excellent return. IMO, he was as good as he's ever been. The 64K question going forward is whether he was a great 2 year old that hasn't developed or a great horse whose development was temporarily stalled by some health issues. We'll find out in his next couple of starts.
3. Justin Philip - Dropped back early, raced 2w then 3w on the turn, swung out and finished OK.
4. Dominus - Raced inside behind the early duel, stayed on the rail on the turn, swung out into the stretch but was out finished by the top three. He only picked up the tiring duelers despite a fairly perfect trip. Dominus may be a little better at middle distances against slightly weaker where he can control the pace.
5. Flashpoint - Hustled to showed speed from the inside, dueled with two others while on the rail, tired about mid stretch. Flashpoint looked like the fastest horse early and the track seemed to be playing to inside speed. So this was a somewhat disappointing effort despite the fast pace.
6. Poseidon's Warrior - Pressed the fast pace from the outside, raced 3w on the turn, and tired through the stretch. This was a very tough trip. He pressed the fast pace while losing ground and racing on what was probably not the best part of the race track. Poseidon's Warrior should be able to hand all but the very best 3YO sprinters with a better trip.
7. Runflatout - Dueled between horses in a fast pace and tired through the stretch.
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