The Travers - August 27, 2011

Race Conditions:          Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 10F, Dirt, Saratoga

Race Class Par:                            111 
Race Class Rating:                       103

Winner's Time/Quality Rating:     102

Pace:  Very Fast Early/Average Middle/Slow Late

Track Condition and Bias:  Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results

Race Comments:  The 2011 Travers brought together several of the leading 3YOs in the division, but sub par performances from Shackleford and Coil force me to rate the overall quality of this race as well below average, especially considering that most of the evidence indicates that the crop of routers itself has been on the weak side throughout the spring and summer. 


Notable Performances:

1. Stay Thirsty - Showed speed right from the start, raced between horses into the first turn while 2w, allowed Shackleford to take the lead on the backstretch, stalked 2w into the second turn, took the lead and held his advantage.  Stay Thirsty has developed nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer.  He was much the best here forcing the fast pace and holding the advantage.

2. Rattlesnake Bridge - Dropped back early, raced 2w first turn, slowly worked his way forward on the backstretch, swung 3w on the second turn, then out 4w late turn and finished OK for the runner up spot.

3. J W Blue - Off a beat slow, trailed early, race 2w first turn, moved 3w and then 4w second turn, out 5w, finished OK for the show.

4. Ruler on Ice - Hustled from the gate to get a forward position, used again to maintain position and race with the leaders, dropped back a bit and appeared finished on the second turn, tried to rally again late but raced evenly.  IMO, Ruler on Ice was unnecessarily used in the fast pace early. That's two races in a row (see Haskell notes) that may be a little better than they look. While he's probably not a a high level Grade 1 horse, IMO Ruler on Ice is generally underrated and would be especially dangerous on a wet track in the right field. 

5. Moonshine Mullin -  Race 3w first turn not too far off the fast pace, made a strong bid 3w second turn and weakened.  A better effort than it looks.

6. Shackleford - Raced 3w 1st turn, took over on the backstretch and dropped to the inside, weakened late turn and then tired late. Shackleford had a pretty tough trip losing ground while racing with the leaders in a fast pace. That goes double if the outside paths weren't the best place to be like I suspect. However, he's had a very tough campaign with a lot of tough stretch drives. He looks like a tired horse in need of a freshening.

7. Coil - Was over bet off his good trip in the Haskell (see Haskell notes), but showed very little here.  This is not the first Bob Baffert horse I've seen run a big race off the plane and then go way off form.