Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 10F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 104
Race Class Rating: 102
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 100
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Not enough evidence to declare a rail bias, but the inside was certainly very good
Race Comments: The 2011 Alabama was a solid Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies in a deep and competitive division
Notable Performances:
1. Royal Delta - Inside behind the leaders, saved ground the entire way, swung out 3w turning for home, wore down the leaders, ducked in through the stretch after clear and drew off. Much like her win in the Black Eyed Susan, Royal Delta got a perfect trip. As I suggested in my review of the CCAO, she was a short horse and very likely to improve (and she clearly did), but I don't think there's much (if any) gap between her and It's Tricky. The combination of the trip and 10F distance was the difference today.
2. It's Tricky - Needlessly kept an extra path wide on the first turn (3w) despite the fact that the inside part of the track seemed to be advantageous, followed Plum Pretty well out on the track in the back stretch, was moved a bit prematurely to challenge her 2w on the second turn, battled gamely until the 1/8th pole, but could not hold off the winner. Despite this result and the improvement from Royal Delta, I still believe It's Tricky may be the most talented 3YO filly in the country with a more neutral trip (especially between 8F-9F). At the very least, the top two are much closer than the margin in this race.
3. Pinch Pie - Rail first turn, moved out to about 3w backstretch, inside off the rail second turn about 2w, picked up a tiring Plum Pretty for 3rd.
4. Plum Pretty - Set the pace out on the track, 2w then inside but off the rail first turn, set a comfortable pace about 3w in the backstretch, was joined by It's Tricky while on the inside heading into the second turn, battled until the 1/8th pole and tired. Plum Pretty is a high quality filly, she just doesn't want to go this far.
5. St. John's River - rated 2w first turn, was taken well out on the track on the backstretch, 3w second turn, could not rally. Not many horses ran well on the outside today and the fast middle didn't make it much easier to gain. While it's not clear there was strong inside bias because of the small sample, it might make sense to give St. John's River a pass for this race if she faces weaker.
6. Inglorious - rated 3w first turn, was taken well out on the track in the backstretch, could not keep up on the second turn, moved inside, but kept dropping back. Inglorious's dirt form was somewhat suspect coming into this race, but I certainly didn't expect something this bad.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
The Test - August 6th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: The 2011 Test was a solid and honestly run Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies.
Notable Performances:
1. Turbulent Descent - Settled off the leaders while well out on the track on the backstretch, ranged up 4w/3w on the turn without being asked for her best, drew off under a full hand ride. This is a very versatile filly that has done some serious running on synthetics, dirt, and off tracks going short and long. IMO, she's a major competitor for the division title with It's Tricky, Zazu, Plum Pretty, and possibly R Heat Lightning when she returns.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - Broke sharply, settled on the outside stalking the quality speed, 3w/2w turn, could not stay with Turbulent Descent when the winner rallied outside of her, but earned the place.
3. Roman Treasure - Shook loose and set a solid pace inside just off the rail, offered no resistance to the winner in the stretch and weakened in the last furlong. May be able to beat a solid field going 6F.
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: The 2011 Test was a solid and honestly run Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies.
Notable Performances:
1. Turbulent Descent - Settled off the leaders while well out on the track on the backstretch, ranged up 4w/3w on the turn without being asked for her best, drew off under a full hand ride. This is a very versatile filly that has done some serious running on synthetics, dirt, and off tracks going short and long. IMO, she's a major competitor for the division title with It's Tricky, Zazu, Plum Pretty, and possibly R Heat Lightning when she returns.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - Broke sharply, settled on the outside stalking the quality speed, 3w/2w turn, could not stay with Turbulent Descent when the winner rallied outside of her, but earned the place.
3. Roman Treasure - Shook loose and set a solid pace inside just off the rail, offered no resistance to the winner in the stretch and weakened in the last furlong. May be able to beat a solid field going 6F.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Whitney Handicap - August 6th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3&up Colts, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 115
Race Class Rating: 113
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: While there were no champions in the race, the 2011 Whitney Handicap was the best field of older horses assembled so far in 2011. The deep field left many decent horses well beaten on the dull and slow track. Tizway has clearly moved to the top of the division. If he holds this form through the end of the year, the only thing standing between him and Horse of the Year is beating a quality field in a competitively run race at 10F race in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Right now, none of the 3YOs look ready to take him on.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - 3w stalking first turn, 3w second turn, took command turning for home and was never threatened. Best older horse in America.
2. Flat Out - Saved ground the whole way, swung out into the stretch., closed well, but was no match. This performance further verified my view that his against the bias performance in the Stephen Foster was better than it looked and his win in the Suburban was no fluke.
http://classhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/stephen-foster-handicap-june-18th-2011.html
3. Giant Oak - Raced inside but off the rail first turn, swung way out on the in the backstretch, raced about 3w second turn, came out further late turn and finished well to get the show spot. Giant Oak often makes a nice late run in these major stakes races, but his style leaves him a lot to do and he simply doesn't have enough ability to win a high level race without some help from tiring pace setters.
4. Rodman - Race inside, was steadied multiple times and appeared rank early in the race, settled down, but had nothing at the end. It might make some sense to shorten Rodman up and look for softer spots. I don't think he can contend against this quality going 9F.
5. Rail Trip - 4w then 3w first turn while racing in the second flight, moved 3w on the second turn into contention, but flattened out and faded. It was easy to excuse Rail Trip's poor performance in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup due to physical issues and lost training. His disappointing efforts so far this year are less easy to forgive. At this point it seems clear that either Rail Trip still has some physical issues or he is simply a better horse on CA's synthetic tracks. While the competition out there may have been a little easier last year (and this year), IMO he performed better last year than right now. It might make some sense to send him back to CA and look for easier spots on his preferred surface.
Race Class Par: 115
Race Class Rating: 113
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: While there were no champions in the race, the 2011 Whitney Handicap was the best field of older horses assembled so far in 2011. The deep field left many decent horses well beaten on the dull and slow track. Tizway has clearly moved to the top of the division. If he holds this form through the end of the year, the only thing standing between him and Horse of the Year is beating a quality field in a competitively run race at 10F race in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Right now, none of the 3YOs look ready to take him on.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - 3w stalking first turn, 3w second turn, took command turning for home and was never threatened. Best older horse in America.
2. Flat Out - Saved ground the whole way, swung out into the stretch., closed well, but was no match. This performance further verified my view that his against the bias performance in the Stephen Foster was better than it looked and his win in the Suburban was no fluke.
http://classhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/stephen-foster-handicap-june-18th-2011.html
3. Giant Oak - Raced inside but off the rail first turn, swung way out on the in the backstretch, raced about 3w second turn, came out further late turn and finished well to get the show spot. Giant Oak often makes a nice late run in these major stakes races, but his style leaves him a lot to do and he simply doesn't have enough ability to win a high level race without some help from tiring pace setters.
4. Rodman - Race inside, was steadied multiple times and appeared rank early in the race, settled down, but had nothing at the end. It might make some sense to shorten Rodman up and look for softer spots. I don't think he can contend against this quality going 9F.
5. Rail Trip - 4w then 3w first turn while racing in the second flight, moved 3w on the second turn into contention, but flattened out and faded. It was easy to excuse Rail Trip's poor performance in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup due to physical issues and lost training. His disappointing efforts so far this year are less easy to forgive. At this point it seems clear that either Rail Trip still has some physical issues or he is simply a better horse on CA's synthetic tracks. While the competition out there may have been a little easier last year (and this year), IMO he performed better last year than right now. It might make some sense to send him back to CA and look for easier spots on his preferred surface.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The Haskell Invitational - July 31, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 9F, Dirt, Monmouth
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Average Early, Average/Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Outside paths and closers seemed to have a mild edge
Race Comments: The Preakness and Belmont winners were joined by several other improving minor Graded Stakes winners for the 2011 Haskel Invitational. Surprisingly, the race came up very slow. It was so slow, that based on the final time it was approximately equal to a limited winner ALW race.
Usually both a qualitative analysis of a field and its pace/final time figures will suggest very similar things about how strong a race was, but not always. This is one of those cases. My experience suggests that as long as the abilities of the horses are fairly well known, a qualitative approach tends to prove more accurate down the line. It's not always easy to explain away a slow final time like this. Usually it's an extreme pace, but that wasn't the case here. Pending how some of these horses run next time out, I am unwilling to accept that this was a limited ALW caliber quality field. It may not have been up to typical Haskell standards given that the 3YO crop is a little on the weak side, but I expect several of these horses to rebound with faster performances next time out that are more indicative of their true quality.
Notable Performances:
1. Coil - Off a little slow, on the rail in the stretch the first time and on the first turn, came out on the backstretch, rallied 4w 2nd turn, came out further late turn, got up late. Impressive race visually, but he may have been on the better part of the track for his rally. It's hard to gauge him. He's clearly good and improving, but he may not be quite as good as this race looked. The track favored his trip.
2. Shackleford - 2w/3w first turn, stalked on the outside backstretch, moved a bit early to contest the lead heading into the 2nd turn, 3w 2nd turn to put away Joe Vann and Concealed Identity to take the lead into the stretch, responded gamely when challenged, but fell short. Another game effort on a track that may not have favored his speed.
3. Ruler on Ice - 2w/3w first turn, rated on the outside backstretch, rallied 3w second turn, was moving well when he shifted to the inside in the stretch, seemed to hang just a little once he got in there. Given that the inside paths may not have been the best place to be, Ruler on Ice could finish better next time out in an improved effort.
4. J Js Lucky Train - 3w/4w first turn just off the pace, moved 4w 2nd turn to challenge, but could not sustain his bid while weakening slightly.
5. Joe Vann - moved to the lead on the rail in the stretch first time, was kept off the rail on the turn and backstretch while setting the pace, tired through the stretch. Joe Vann should run better next time (especially against weaker) given that he set the pace and spent some time inside on a track was not playing that way.
6. Concealed Identity - raced along the rail first turn, made a nice bid on the rail on the backstretch to get into serious contention, dropped back and tired on the turn. Concealed Identity almost certainly ran better than it looks on paper given that he was inside for all the serious running , but will have to seek weaker competition to reach the winners circle. Worth following.
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Average Early, Average/Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Outside paths and closers seemed to have a mild edge
Race Comments: The Preakness and Belmont winners were joined by several other improving minor Graded Stakes winners for the 2011 Haskel Invitational. Surprisingly, the race came up very slow. It was so slow, that based on the final time it was approximately equal to a limited winner ALW race.
Usually both a qualitative analysis of a field and its pace/final time figures will suggest very similar things about how strong a race was, but not always. This is one of those cases. My experience suggests that as long as the abilities of the horses are fairly well known, a qualitative approach tends to prove more accurate down the line. It's not always easy to explain away a slow final time like this. Usually it's an extreme pace, but that wasn't the case here. Pending how some of these horses run next time out, I am unwilling to accept that this was a limited ALW caliber quality field. It may not have been up to typical Haskell standards given that the 3YO crop is a little on the weak side, but I expect several of these horses to rebound with faster performances next time out that are more indicative of their true quality.
Notable Performances:
1. Coil - Off a little slow, on the rail in the stretch the first time and on the first turn, came out on the backstretch, rallied 4w 2nd turn, came out further late turn, got up late. Impressive race visually, but he may have been on the better part of the track for his rally. It's hard to gauge him. He's clearly good and improving, but he may not be quite as good as this race looked. The track favored his trip.
2. Shackleford - 2w/3w first turn, stalked on the outside backstretch, moved a bit early to contest the lead heading into the 2nd turn, 3w 2nd turn to put away Joe Vann and Concealed Identity to take the lead into the stretch, responded gamely when challenged, but fell short. Another game effort on a track that may not have favored his speed.
3. Ruler on Ice - 2w/3w first turn, rated on the outside backstretch, rallied 3w second turn, was moving well when he shifted to the inside in the stretch, seemed to hang just a little once he got in there. Given that the inside paths may not have been the best place to be, Ruler on Ice could finish better next time out in an improved effort.
4. J Js Lucky Train - 3w/4w first turn just off the pace, moved 4w 2nd turn to challenge, but could not sustain his bid while weakening slightly.
5. Joe Vann - moved to the lead on the rail in the stretch first time, was kept off the rail on the turn and backstretch while setting the pace, tired through the stretch. Joe Vann should run better next time (especially against weaker) given that he set the pace and spent some time inside on a track was not playing that way.
6. Concealed Identity - raced along the rail first turn, made a nice bid on the rail on the backstretch to get into serious contention, dropped back and tired on the turn. Concealed Identity almost certainly ran better than it looks on paper given that he was inside for all the serious running , but will have to seek weaker competition to reach the winners circle. Worth following.
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