The Whitney Handicap - August 6th, 2011

Race Conditions:          Grade 1, 3&up Colts, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga

Race Class Par:                            115 
Race Class Rating:                       113

Winner's Time/Quality Rating:     112

Pace:  Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late

Track Condition and Bias:  Dull fast track with no clear bias

Race Comments:  While there were no champions in the race, the 2011 Whitney Handicap was the best field of older horses assembled so far in 2011.  The deep field left many decent horses well beaten on the dull and slow track.  Tizway has clearly moved to the top of the division. If he holds this form through the end of the year, the only thing standing between him and Horse of the Year is beating a quality field in a competitively run race at 10F race in the Breeder's Cup Classic.  Right now, none of the 3YOs look ready to take him on.

Notable Performances:

1. Tizway  - 3w stalking first turn, 3w second turn, took command turning for home and was never threatened. Best older horse in America. 



2. Flat Out - Saved ground the whole way, swung out into the stretch., closed well, but was no match.  This performance further verified my view that his against the bias performance in the Stephen Foster was better than it looked and his win in the Suburban was no fluke.

http://classhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/stephen-foster-handicap-june-18th-2011.html



3. Giant Oak - Raced inside but off the rail first turn, swung way out on the in the backstretch, raced about 3w second turn, came out further late turn and finished well to get the show spot.  Giant Oak often makes a nice late run in these major stakes races, but his style leaves him a lot to do and he simply doesn't have enough ability to win a high level race without some help from tiring pace setters.  


4. Rodman - Race inside, was steadied multiple times and appeared rank early in the race, settled down, but had nothing at the end.  It might make some sense to shorten Rodman up and look for softer spots. I don't think he can contend against this quality going 9F. 

5. Rail Trip - 4w then 3w first turn while racing in the second flight, moved 3w on the second turn into contention, but flattened out and faded.  It was easy to excuse Rail Trip's poor performance in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup due to physical issues and lost training. His disappointing efforts so far this year are less easy to forgive.  At this point it seems clear that either Rail Trip still has some physical issues or he is simply a better horse on CA's synthetic tracks. While the competition out there may have been a little easier last year (and this year), IMO he performed better last year than right now. It might make some sense to send him back to CA and look for easier spots on his preferred surface.