The Haskell Invitational - July 31, 2011

Race Conditions:          Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 9F, Dirt, Monmouth

Race Class Par:                            110 
Race Class Rating:                       106

Winner's Time/Quality Rating:     101

Pace:  Average Early, Average/Fast Middle, Average Late

Track Condition and Bias:  Outside paths and closers seemed to have a mild edge

Race Comments: The Preakness and Belmont winners were joined by several other improving minor Graded Stakes winners for the 2011 Haskel Invitational. Surprisingly, the race came up very slow.  It was so slow, that based on the final time it was approximately equal to a limited winner ALW race.

Usually both a qualitative analysis of a field and its pace/final time figures will suggest very similar things about how strong a race was, but not always.  This is one of those cases.  My experience suggests that as long as the abilities of the horses are fairly well known, a qualitative approach tends to prove more accurate down the line.  It's not always easy to explain away a slow final time like this. Usually it's an extreme pace, but that wasn't the case here.  Pending how some of these horses run next time out, I am unwilling to accept that this was a limited ALW caliber quality field.  It may not have been up to typical Haskell standards given that the 3YO crop is a little on the weak side, but I expect several of these horses to rebound with faster performances next time out that are more indicative of their true quality.      

Notable Performances:

1. Coil  -  Off a little slow, on the rail in the stretch the first time and on the first turn, came out on the backstretch, rallied 4w 2nd turn, came out further late turn, got up late.  Impressive race visually, but he may have been on the better part of the track for his rally.  It's hard to gauge him.  He's clearly good and improving, but he may not be quite as good as this race looked.  The track favored his trip.  


2. Shackleford - 2w/3w first turn, stalked on the outside backstretch, moved a bit early to contest the lead heading into the 2nd turn,  3w 2nd turn to put away Joe Vann and Concealed Identity to take the lead into the stretch, responded gamely when challenged, but fell short.  Another game effort on a track that may not have favored his speed.    


3. Ruler on Ice - 2w/3w first turn, rated on the outside backstretch, rallied 3w second turn, was moving well when he shifted to the inside in the stretch, seemed to hang just a little once he got in there.  Given that the inside paths may not have been the best place to be,  Ruler on Ice could finish better next time out in an improved effort.


4. J Js Lucky Train - 3w/4w first turn just off the pace, moved 4w 2nd turn to challenge, but could not sustain his bid while weakening slightly.


5. Joe Vann - moved to the lead on the rail in the stretch first time, was kept off the rail on the turn and backstretch while setting the pace, tired through the stretch.  Joe Vann should run better next time (especially against weaker) given that he set the pace and spent some time inside on a track was not playing that way.


6.  Concealed Identity - raced along the rail first turn, made a nice bid on the rail on the backstretch to get into serious contention, dropped back and tired on the turn.  Concealed Identity almost certainly ran better than it looks on paper given that he was inside for all the serious running , but will have to seek weaker competition to reach the winners circle.  Worth following.