Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 8.5F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 93
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 93.5
Pace: Slow/Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite a deep and strong 3YO filly division, the absence of several of the leaders of the division made the 2011 Mother Goose more a solid Grade 2 event than a legitimate Grade 1 race.
Notable Performances:
1. Buster's Ready - much improved filly staked the pace 2 wide turn and out kicked the others through the stretch impressively.
2. Joyful Victory - sat behind horses 2 wide turn, swung out 4 wide late turn for the stretch run, wore down R Gypsy Gold for the place late, but didn't have near the kick of the winner. This was a somewhat disappointing effort coming off two big wins against weaker and a decent 4th in a solid Kentucky Oaks field despite racing on a bad rail for some of the race.
3. R Gypsy Gold - stalked to the pace 3 wide turn and just failed to hold the place against Joyful Victory in a good effort.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Stephen Foster Handicap - June 18th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 9F, Dirt, Churchill Downs
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: The track was sloppy and sealed for races 1-8, upgraded to good for race 10, and upgraded to fast for the Stephen Foster. Given the changing track conditions, it's difficult to come to a strong conclusion about a track bias, but it did appear that a few jockeys avoided the rail instead of saving ground. Horses that raced well out on the track didn't appear to be disadvantaged despite the ground loss. It will probably be worth while following horses that raced on the rail to see if they come back with improved performances. It wasn't death in there, but it may not have been the best place to be. The track may have had some moisture in it despite being rated fast.
Race Comments: The 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap was more of a very deep Grade 2 event featuring many horses of similar ability than a legitimate high level Grade 1.
Notable Performances:
1. Pool Play inside but off the rail first turn, swung out and started his rally very wide mid second turn, looped the field and wound up 9 wide or more late turn, up late. Pool Play has been a Grade 3 turf performer (at best) prior to his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster. He may have found a new and better home on dirt, but I'd like to see one more before being certain.
2. Mission Impazible was 4 then 3 wide first turn just off the pace from the 11 post, stalked the pace of Regal Ransom wide second turn without being used, took the lead, repulsed a long strong bid from Duke of Mischief through the stretch and just failed to hold the winner off.
3. Apart inside but off the rail, worked his way outside not far off the pace, rallied outside Mission Impazible, was in tight between horses at a couple points through the stretch while making his bid and finished OK.
4. Duke of Mischief settled near the back of the pack while 3 wide first turn, made a huge 5 then 6 wide bid second turn to put a head in front mid stretch, but hung late.
5. Giant Oak settled at the back of the pack 4 then 3 wide first turn, circled very wide around the second turn and was 7 or 8 wide late turn while making his bid, but did not have enough late while hanging.
6. Flat Out saved ground the whole way, made a very nice bid along the rail to get into serious contention mid stretch, but was out finished. If a determination about a rail bias can be made prior to this one's next effort, he might be worth following.
7. Crown of Thorns went for the early lead along the rail, backed out and moved off the rail while inside behind horses, swung out for the drive, but didn't have much. This one seems to prefer synthetics.
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: The track was sloppy and sealed for races 1-8, upgraded to good for race 10, and upgraded to fast for the Stephen Foster. Given the changing track conditions, it's difficult to come to a strong conclusion about a track bias, but it did appear that a few jockeys avoided the rail instead of saving ground. Horses that raced well out on the track didn't appear to be disadvantaged despite the ground loss. It will probably be worth while following horses that raced on the rail to see if they come back with improved performances. It wasn't death in there, but it may not have been the best place to be. The track may have had some moisture in it despite being rated fast.
Race Comments: The 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap was more of a very deep Grade 2 event featuring many horses of similar ability than a legitimate high level Grade 1.
Notable Performances:
1. Pool Play inside but off the rail first turn, swung out and started his rally very wide mid second turn, looped the field and wound up 9 wide or more late turn, up late. Pool Play has been a Grade 3 turf performer (at best) prior to his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster. He may have found a new and better home on dirt, but I'd like to see one more before being certain.
2. Mission Impazible was 4 then 3 wide first turn just off the pace from the 11 post, stalked the pace of Regal Ransom wide second turn without being used, took the lead, repulsed a long strong bid from Duke of Mischief through the stretch and just failed to hold the winner off.
3. Apart inside but off the rail, worked his way outside not far off the pace, rallied outside Mission Impazible, was in tight between horses at a couple points through the stretch while making his bid and finished OK.
4. Duke of Mischief settled near the back of the pack while 3 wide first turn, made a huge 5 then 6 wide bid second turn to put a head in front mid stretch, but hung late.
5. Giant Oak settled at the back of the pack 4 then 3 wide first turn, circled very wide around the second turn and was 7 or 8 wide late turn while making his bid, but did not have enough late while hanging.
6. Flat Out saved ground the whole way, made a very nice bid along the rail to get into serious contention mid stretch, but was out finished. If a determination about a rail bias can be made prior to this one's next effort, he might be worth following.
7. Crown of Thorns went for the early lead along the rail, backed out and moved off the rail while inside behind horses, swung out for the drive, but didn't have much. This one seems to prefer synthetics.
Ogden Phipps - June 18th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, F/M, 8.5F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 98
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Fast Early, Average/Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Ogden Phipps Acorn was reduced to a field of 5 with the late scratch of Unrivaled Belle who was expected to be a primary contender. That left the small field as more of a Grade 2 event than the official Grade 1 designation.
Notable Performances:
1. Awesome Maria stalked the fast pace of Absinthe Minded, took over when the latter began to weaken, was immediately joined by Life At Ten, repulsed her bid, and drew clear. 4YO mare is undefeated in 2011 and seems ready to take take on the legitimate leaders of the division. I still rate her a notch below the best.
2. Payton d'Oro sat off the pace not far behind Life At Ten while wide on the backstretch, dropped back off that one into the turn while remaining 3 wide, swung out further late turn and into the stretch and finished well.
3. Life At Ten was off quickly and taken under a snug hold, remained close to the fast pace while 3 wide, made a strong bid 3/4 wide late turn and into the stretch, but weakened. This may have been her best effort so far in 2011, but she's still not near her peak form from 2010.
4. Super Espresso sat inside not too far too off the pace behind horses, moved closer, and finished OK while picking off tired horses. Perfect trip.
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 98
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Fast Early, Average/Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Ogden Phipps Acorn was reduced to a field of 5 with the late scratch of Unrivaled Belle who was expected to be a primary contender. That left the small field as more of a Grade 2 event than the official Grade 1 designation.
Notable Performances:
1. Awesome Maria stalked the fast pace of Absinthe Minded, took over when the latter began to weaken, was immediately joined by Life At Ten, repulsed her bid, and drew clear. 4YO mare is undefeated in 2011 and seems ready to take take on the legitimate leaders of the division. I still rate her a notch below the best.
2. Payton d'Oro sat off the pace not far behind Life At Ten while wide on the backstretch, dropped back off that one into the turn while remaining 3 wide, swung out further late turn and into the stretch and finished well.
3. Life At Ten was off quickly and taken under a snug hold, remained close to the fast pace while 3 wide, made a strong bid 3/4 wide late turn and into the stretch, but weakened. This may have been her best effort so far in 2011, but she's still not near her peak form from 2010.
4. Super Espresso sat inside not too far too off the pace behind horses, moved closer, and finished OK while picking off tired horses. Perfect trip.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
The Acorn Stakes - June 11, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 8F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 97
Race Class Rating: 97
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Acorn was not an especially deep or high quality edition. Both It's Tricky and Turbulent Descent distinguished themselves as legitimate Grade 1 quality performers, but the large gap between them and the rest of the field partially reflects the lack of quality behind them.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - staked the pace of the speedy Savy Supreme, took over into the stretch, and repulsed the late bid of Turbulent Descent to win decisively in fast time. It's Tricky was very impressive at Aqueduct in NY during the winter before disappointing badly with no obvious excuse in the GP Oaks in Florida. This performance moves her to the top of the class with R Heat Lightning.
2. Turbulent Descent - did nothing to diminish her Grade 1 credentials finishing 2nd, ten lengths ahead of the rest of the field. She just ran into a very good 3YO filly.
Race Class Par: 97
Race Class Rating: 97
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Acorn was not an especially deep or high quality edition. Both It's Tricky and Turbulent Descent distinguished themselves as legitimate Grade 1 quality performers, but the large gap between them and the rest of the field partially reflects the lack of quality behind them.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - staked the pace of the speedy Savy Supreme, took over into the stretch, and repulsed the late bid of Turbulent Descent to win decisively in fast time. It's Tricky was very impressive at Aqueduct in NY during the winter before disappointing badly with no obvious excuse in the GP Oaks in Florida. This performance moves her to the top of the class with R Heat Lightning.
2. Turbulent Descent - did nothing to diminish her Grade 1 credentials finishing 2nd, ten lengths ahead of the rest of the field. She just ran into a very good 3YO filly.
Belmont Stakes - June 11, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YOs, 12F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 105
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102.5
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Belmont Stakes contained both the winner of Kentucky Derby and Preakness plus several horses that have been competitive at this level. The track was sealed and sloppy. The combination of the track condition and the always complicating factor of the long distance produced another Belmont upset. I would tend to be forgiving of all sub par performances and mildly skeptical of all high level performance in this race until form is verified in subsequent starts.
Notable Performances:
1. Ruler On Ice - stalked Shackleford's slow/average pace, took over when that one weakened, and held the others safe.
2. Animal Kindom - was bumped and stumbled badly at the start causing the rider to lose his irons, fell far back, made a huge wide run, but hung and weakened late
3. Brilliant Speed - Raced 4 wide on both turns, made a big threatening move into the stretch, could not get by Ruler on Ice and finished evenly late. A very solid race.
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 105
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102.5
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Belmont Stakes contained both the winner of Kentucky Derby and Preakness plus several horses that have been competitive at this level. The track was sealed and sloppy. The combination of the track condition and the always complicating factor of the long distance produced another Belmont upset. I would tend to be forgiving of all sub par performances and mildly skeptical of all high level performance in this race until form is verified in subsequent starts.
Notable Performances:
1. Ruler On Ice - stalked Shackleford's slow/average pace, took over when that one weakened, and held the others safe.
2. Animal Kindom - was bumped and stumbled badly at the start causing the rider to lose his irons, fell far back, made a huge wide run, but hung and weakened late
3. Brilliant Speed - Raced 4 wide on both turns, made a big threatening move into the stretch, could not get by Ruler on Ice and finished evenly late. A very solid race.
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