Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 6F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 112
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 106
Pace: Average Early; Average Middle; Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The the 2011 Vosburgh looked like a solid and deep sprint going into the race, but some bumping at the start took California speed horse Euroears and a couple of others out of their game and changed the likely race development.
Notable Performances:
1. Giant Ryan - Took the lead soon after the start, shook loose, set the pace 2w, and repulsed a challenge by Force Freeze late through the stretch.
It's hard to knock Giant Ryan off of 6 straight wins, but his effort to make the lead in this race was enhanced by the rough start for Euroears. The speed favoring surface also certainly didn't hurt his chances. I'd be more apt to try to beat him in the BC Sprint despite his current sharp form.
2. Force Freeze - Away well, eased to the outside of Giant Ryan on the backstretch, 3w turn, made a bid through late stretch but could not get up.
It's a shame Force Freeze spent so much time in Dubai. He clearly loves dirt racing here in the US and seems to be improving.
3. Caixa Electronica -Trailed early, rallied inside just off the rail early turn, slowly worked his way out late turn, came way outside for the stretch drive and closed well on the speed favoring surface.
4. Trappe Shot - Bumped at the start, pushed to get back into contention, raced 3/4w on the turn, came in a little, and finished evenly through the stretch.
Before the race, a good case could be made that Trappe Shot was the best sprinter in the country. Given his trip, the muddy sealed surface, and the speed favoring nature of the track, I'm more apt to give him a pass for this race than downgrade him sharply even though he has handled off tracks in the past. I think it's more likely he rebounds with a solid effort next time than disappoints again. He could even get the money in the BC Sprint.
5. Calibrachoa - Came in bothering Euroears and Apriority, slowly dropped back 2/3w turn and didn't have much late.
6. Justin Philip - Bumped at the start, chased the pace 4/5w on the turn, and gave way.
While Justin Philip probably doesn't belong with the best sprinters in the country at this stage, his effort here chasing the Grade 1 pace while very wide was better than it looks. He should run much better in softer company.
7. Apriority - Stumbled shortly after the start after being bumped, was pushed a little to get back into contention, chased the pace on the inside, made a bid turning for home, but tired.
8. Euroears - Was more or less eliminated at the start which changed the probable development of the race.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
The Beldame - October 1, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, F/M, 9F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 107
Race Class Rating: 101
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early; Average Middle; Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: Havre de Grace dominated a small and shallow field of fillies and mares and verified her position at the top of the division and as a major contender in the BC Classic.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled nicely on the outside, moved a bit prematurely when Royal Delta made a move on the leader from the inside, 3W turn, took over late turn, drew off, and won with plenty of energy in reserve.
Earlier in the year I didn't think Havre de Grace was good enough to beat Grade 1 older males going 10F on dirt in the Classic. I still have my doubts because it's such an incredibly difficult assignment for a mare. However, with Tiznow and Twilight Candy missing their final preps, a 3YO division that has generally failed to step forward, and a relatively weak older horse division other than Flat Out, she has to be given a good chance. (I'll comment on Uncle Mo in a future entry)
2. Royal Delta - Moved a bit prematurely on the leader on the backstretch, dropped back a little inside, stayed inside but off the rail on the turn, came out late turn, but was no match.
Royal Delta was aided by a perfect trip in the Alabama and by being the only filly suited to the 10F distance. She'll clearly be a contender in the Ladies Classic with Blind Luck out for the year and Havre de Grace going into the Classic, but I think she's mildly overrated relative to some of the other 3YO fillies off two perfect trip wins (at least at this stage). She fits with them, but she's not better by nearly as much as the Alabama indicated.
Race Class Par: 107
Race Class Rating: 101
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early; Average Middle; Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: Havre de Grace dominated a small and shallow field of fillies and mares and verified her position at the top of the division and as a major contender in the BC Classic.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled nicely on the outside, moved a bit prematurely when Royal Delta made a move on the leader from the inside, 3W turn, took over late turn, drew off, and won with plenty of energy in reserve.
Earlier in the year I didn't think Havre de Grace was good enough to beat Grade 1 older males going 10F on dirt in the Classic. I still have my doubts because it's such an incredibly difficult assignment for a mare. However, with Tiznow and Twilight Candy missing their final preps, a 3YO division that has generally failed to step forward, and a relatively weak older horse division other than Flat Out, she has to be given a good chance. (I'll comment on Uncle Mo in a future entry)
2. Royal Delta - Moved a bit prematurely on the leader on the backstretch, dropped back a little inside, stayed inside but off the rail on the turn, came out late turn, but was no match.
Royal Delta was aided by a perfect trip in the Alabama and by being the only filly suited to the 10F distance. She'll clearly be a contender in the Ladies Classic with Blind Luck out for the year and Havre de Grace going into the Classic, but I think she's mildly overrated relative to some of the other 3YO fillies off two perfect trip wins (at least at this stage). She fits with them, but she's not better by nearly as much as the Alabama indicated.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
The Jockey Club Gold Cup - October 1, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 10F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early; Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The absence of Tizway and the decision to run Havre de Grace in the Beldame lowered the overall quality of the Jockey Club relative to typical standards. The track was sealed and tilted towards speed, but it's difficult to extend that to the JCGC given that it was the only two turn race of the day and it seemed to develop in a relatively honest fashion.
Notable Performances:
1. Flat Out - Settled closer to the pace than usual on the outside, moved 3 wide on the turn to take the lead into the stretch and was ridden out to the finish. Flat Out may be the only legitimate Grade 1 older horse in America that is suited to the 10F distance of the Classic and hasn't missed an important prep race going in.
2. Stray Thirsty- Off well, taken back inside but off the rail, stayed inside but off the rail on the backstretch, moved out 2 then 3 wide on the second turn trying to follow Flat Out, but didn't have enough to seriously threaten.
In 2011 I rated many of the Grade 1 races limited to 3YO colts as below average. Now that some of them are tying older horses for the first time (and not a particularly strong group of older horses I might add), I think it's going to become clear that despite some significant quality in the sprint/mile division, the 3YO classic division has not been very good in 2011.
It's probably not wise to totally write off Stay Thirsty heading into the BC Classic. He's one of the few quality horses well suited to 10F that hasn't missed a key prep. Plus, there simply aren't any world beaters out there. But IMHO, if he wins the Classic it will probably say more about the quality of that field than his performance.
3. Drosselmeyer - Settled inside behind the leaders, saved ground just off the rail on the turn, came out late turn and finished well outside. Drosselmeyer is an even paced horse that can run all day. A very good case can be made that this was his best lifetime effort. Whether it was because he loved the off track (well bred for it) or that he's finally breaking out a little is hard to tell. If it's the latter, he might be able to pick up a minor piece in the Classic at a huge price if the race falls apart a little late. If he runs in the BC Marathon, he could be formidable.
4. A. U. Miner - well back early, made a nice run and finished well without ever being a threat. Should be a contender in the BC Marathon.
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early; Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The absence of Tizway and the decision to run Havre de Grace in the Beldame lowered the overall quality of the Jockey Club relative to typical standards. The track was sealed and tilted towards speed, but it's difficult to extend that to the JCGC given that it was the only two turn race of the day and it seemed to develop in a relatively honest fashion.
Notable Performances:
1. Flat Out - Settled closer to the pace than usual on the outside, moved 3 wide on the turn to take the lead into the stretch and was ridden out to the finish. Flat Out may be the only legitimate Grade 1 older horse in America that is suited to the 10F distance of the Classic and hasn't missed an important prep race going in.
2. Stray Thirsty- Off well, taken back inside but off the rail, stayed inside but off the rail on the backstretch, moved out 2 then 3 wide on the second turn trying to follow Flat Out, but didn't have enough to seriously threaten.
In 2011 I rated many of the Grade 1 races limited to 3YO colts as below average. Now that some of them are tying older horses for the first time (and not a particularly strong group of older horses I might add), I think it's going to become clear that despite some significant quality in the sprint/mile division, the 3YO classic division has not been very good in 2011.
It's probably not wise to totally write off Stay Thirsty heading into the BC Classic. He's one of the few quality horses well suited to 10F that hasn't missed a key prep. Plus, there simply aren't any world beaters out there. But IMHO, if he wins the Classic it will probably say more about the quality of that field than his performance.
3. Drosselmeyer - Settled inside behind the leaders, saved ground just off the rail on the turn, came out late turn and finished well outside. Drosselmeyer is an even paced horse that can run all day. A very good case can be made that this was his best lifetime effort. Whether it was because he loved the off track (well bred for it) or that he's finally breaking out a little is hard to tell. If it's the latter, he might be able to pick up a minor piece in the Classic at a huge price if the race falls apart a little late. If he runs in the BC Marathon, he could be formidable.
4. A. U. Miner - well back early, made a nice run and finished well without ever being a threat. Should be a contender in the BC Marathon.
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