The Jockey Club Gold Cup - October 1, 2011

Race Conditions:          Grade 1,  3+,  10F,  Dirt,  Belmont Park

Race Class Par:                            114 
Race Class Rating:                       107

Winner's Time/Quality Rating:    107

Pace:  Fast Early;  Average Middle;  Slow Late

Track Condition and Bias:  Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races

Race Comments:  The absence of Tizway and the decision to run Havre de Grace in the Beldame lowered the overall quality of the Jockey Club relative to typical standards.  The track was sealed and tilted towards speed, but it's difficult to extend that to the JCGC given that it was the only two turn race of the day and it seemed to develop in a relatively honest fashion.

Notable Performances:

1. Flat Out - Settled closer to the pace than usual on the outside, moved 3 wide on the turn to take the lead into the stretch and was ridden out to the finish. Flat Out may be the only legitimate Grade 1 older horse in America that is suited to the 10F distance of the Classic and hasn't missed an important prep race going in.


2. Stray Thirsty- Off well, taken back inside but off the rail, stayed inside but off the rail on the backstretch, moved out 2 then 3 wide on the second turn trying to follow Flat Out, but didn't have enough to seriously threaten.

In 2011 I rated many of the Grade 1 races limited to 3YO colts as below average. Now that some of them are tying older horses for the first time (and not a particularly strong group of older horses I might add), I think it's going to become clear that despite some significant quality in the sprint/mile division, the 3YO classic division has not been very good in 2011.     

It's probably not wise to totally write off Stay Thirsty heading into the BC Classic. He's one of the few quality horses well suited to 10F that hasn't missed a key prep.  Plus, there simply aren't any world beaters out there.  But IMHO, if he wins the Classic it will probably say more about the quality of that field than his performance.

3. Drosselmeyer - Settled inside behind the leaders, saved ground just off the rail on the turn, came out late turn and finished well outside.  Drosselmeyer is an even paced horse that can run all day.  A very good case can be made that this was his best lifetime effort.  Whether it was because he loved the off track (well bred for it) or that he's finally breaking out a little is hard to tell.  If it's the latter, he might be able to pick up a minor piece in the Classic at a huge price if the race falls apart a little late.  If he runs in the BC Marathon, he could be formidable.

4. A. U. Miner - well back early, made a nice run and finished well without ever being a threat. Should be a contender in the BC Marathon.