Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 6F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 112
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 106
Pace: Average Early; Average Middle; Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The the 2011 Vosburgh looked like a solid and deep sprint going into the race, but some bumping at the start took California speed horse Euroears and a couple of others out of their game and changed the likely race development.
Notable Performances:
1. Giant Ryan - Took the lead soon after the start, shook loose, set the pace 2w, and repulsed a challenge by Force Freeze late through the stretch.
It's hard to knock Giant Ryan off of 6 straight wins, but his effort to make the lead in this race was enhanced by the rough start for Euroears. The speed favoring surface also certainly didn't hurt his chances. I'd be more apt to try to beat him in the BC Sprint despite his current sharp form.
2. Force Freeze - Away well, eased to the outside of Giant Ryan on the backstretch, 3w turn, made a bid through late stretch but could not get up.
It's a shame Force Freeze spent so much time in Dubai. He clearly loves dirt racing here in the US and seems to be improving.
3. Caixa Electronica -Trailed early, rallied inside just off the rail early turn, slowly worked his way out late turn, came way outside for the stretch drive and closed well on the speed favoring surface.
4. Trappe Shot - Bumped at the start, pushed to get back into contention, raced 3/4w on the turn, came in a little, and finished evenly through the stretch.
Before the race, a good case could be made that Trappe Shot was the best sprinter in the country. Given his trip, the muddy sealed surface, and the speed favoring nature of the track, I'm more apt to give him a pass for this race than downgrade him sharply even though he has handled off tracks in the past. I think it's more likely he rebounds with a solid effort next time than disappoints again. He could even get the money in the BC Sprint.
5. Calibrachoa - Came in bothering Euroears and Apriority, slowly dropped back 2/3w turn and didn't have much late.
6. Justin Philip - Bumped at the start, chased the pace 4/5w on the turn, and gave way.
While Justin Philip probably doesn't belong with the best sprinters in the country at this stage, his effort here chasing the Grade 1 pace while very wide was better than it looks. He should run much better in softer company.
7. Apriority - Stumbled shortly after the start after being bumped, was pushed a little to get back into contention, chased the pace on the inside, made a bid turning for home, but tired.
8. Euroears - Was more or less eliminated at the start which changed the probable development of the race.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
The Beldame - October 1, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, F/M, 9F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 107
Race Class Rating: 101
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early; Average Middle; Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: Havre de Grace dominated a small and shallow field of fillies and mares and verified her position at the top of the division and as a major contender in the BC Classic.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled nicely on the outside, moved a bit prematurely when Royal Delta made a move on the leader from the inside, 3W turn, took over late turn, drew off, and won with plenty of energy in reserve.
Earlier in the year I didn't think Havre de Grace was good enough to beat Grade 1 older males going 10F on dirt in the Classic. I still have my doubts because it's such an incredibly difficult assignment for a mare. However, with Tiznow and Twilight Candy missing their final preps, a 3YO division that has generally failed to step forward, and a relatively weak older horse division other than Flat Out, she has to be given a good chance. (I'll comment on Uncle Mo in a future entry)
2. Royal Delta - Moved a bit prematurely on the leader on the backstretch, dropped back a little inside, stayed inside but off the rail on the turn, came out late turn, but was no match.
Royal Delta was aided by a perfect trip in the Alabama and by being the only filly suited to the 10F distance. She'll clearly be a contender in the Ladies Classic with Blind Luck out for the year and Havre de Grace going into the Classic, but I think she's mildly overrated relative to some of the other 3YO fillies off two perfect trip wins (at least at this stage). She fits with them, but she's not better by nearly as much as the Alabama indicated.
Race Class Par: 107
Race Class Rating: 101
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early; Average Middle; Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: Havre de Grace dominated a small and shallow field of fillies and mares and verified her position at the top of the division and as a major contender in the BC Classic.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled nicely on the outside, moved a bit prematurely when Royal Delta made a move on the leader from the inside, 3W turn, took over late turn, drew off, and won with plenty of energy in reserve.
Earlier in the year I didn't think Havre de Grace was good enough to beat Grade 1 older males going 10F on dirt in the Classic. I still have my doubts because it's such an incredibly difficult assignment for a mare. However, with Tiznow and Twilight Candy missing their final preps, a 3YO division that has generally failed to step forward, and a relatively weak older horse division other than Flat Out, she has to be given a good chance. (I'll comment on Uncle Mo in a future entry)
2. Royal Delta - Moved a bit prematurely on the leader on the backstretch, dropped back a little inside, stayed inside but off the rail on the turn, came out late turn, but was no match.
Royal Delta was aided by a perfect trip in the Alabama and by being the only filly suited to the 10F distance. She'll clearly be a contender in the Ladies Classic with Blind Luck out for the year and Havre de Grace going into the Classic, but I think she's mildly overrated relative to some of the other 3YO fillies off two perfect trip wins (at least at this stage). She fits with them, but she's not better by nearly as much as the Alabama indicated.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
The Jockey Club Gold Cup - October 1, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 10F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early; Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The absence of Tizway and the decision to run Havre de Grace in the Beldame lowered the overall quality of the Jockey Club relative to typical standards. The track was sealed and tilted towards speed, but it's difficult to extend that to the JCGC given that it was the only two turn race of the day and it seemed to develop in a relatively honest fashion.
Notable Performances:
1. Flat Out - Settled closer to the pace than usual on the outside, moved 3 wide on the turn to take the lead into the stretch and was ridden out to the finish. Flat Out may be the only legitimate Grade 1 older horse in America that is suited to the 10F distance of the Classic and hasn't missed an important prep race going in.
2. Stray Thirsty- Off well, taken back inside but off the rail, stayed inside but off the rail on the backstretch, moved out 2 then 3 wide on the second turn trying to follow Flat Out, but didn't have enough to seriously threaten.
In 2011 I rated many of the Grade 1 races limited to 3YO colts as below average. Now that some of them are tying older horses for the first time (and not a particularly strong group of older horses I might add), I think it's going to become clear that despite some significant quality in the sprint/mile division, the 3YO classic division has not been very good in 2011.
It's probably not wise to totally write off Stay Thirsty heading into the BC Classic. He's one of the few quality horses well suited to 10F that hasn't missed a key prep. Plus, there simply aren't any world beaters out there. But IMHO, if he wins the Classic it will probably say more about the quality of that field than his performance.
3. Drosselmeyer - Settled inside behind the leaders, saved ground just off the rail on the turn, came out late turn and finished well outside. Drosselmeyer is an even paced horse that can run all day. A very good case can be made that this was his best lifetime effort. Whether it was because he loved the off track (well bred for it) or that he's finally breaking out a little is hard to tell. If it's the latter, he might be able to pick up a minor piece in the Classic at a huge price if the race falls apart a little late. If he runs in the BC Marathon, he could be formidable.
4. A. U. Miner - well back early, made a nice run and finished well without ever being a threat. Should be a contender in the BC Marathon.
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early; Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Muddy and sealed; tilted towards speed in one turn races, insufficient information to evaluate two turn races
Race Comments: The absence of Tizway and the decision to run Havre de Grace in the Beldame lowered the overall quality of the Jockey Club relative to typical standards. The track was sealed and tilted towards speed, but it's difficult to extend that to the JCGC given that it was the only two turn race of the day and it seemed to develop in a relatively honest fashion.
Notable Performances:
1. Flat Out - Settled closer to the pace than usual on the outside, moved 3 wide on the turn to take the lead into the stretch and was ridden out to the finish. Flat Out may be the only legitimate Grade 1 older horse in America that is suited to the 10F distance of the Classic and hasn't missed an important prep race going in.
2. Stray Thirsty- Off well, taken back inside but off the rail, stayed inside but off the rail on the backstretch, moved out 2 then 3 wide on the second turn trying to follow Flat Out, but didn't have enough to seriously threaten.
In 2011 I rated many of the Grade 1 races limited to 3YO colts as below average. Now that some of them are tying older horses for the first time (and not a particularly strong group of older horses I might add), I think it's going to become clear that despite some significant quality in the sprint/mile division, the 3YO classic division has not been very good in 2011.
It's probably not wise to totally write off Stay Thirsty heading into the BC Classic. He's one of the few quality horses well suited to 10F that hasn't missed a key prep. Plus, there simply aren't any world beaters out there. But IMHO, if he wins the Classic it will probably say more about the quality of that field than his performance.
3. Drosselmeyer - Settled inside behind the leaders, saved ground just off the rail on the turn, came out late turn and finished well outside. Drosselmeyer is an even paced horse that can run all day. A very good case can be made that this was his best lifetime effort. Whether it was because he loved the off track (well bred for it) or that he's finally breaking out a little is hard to tell. If it's the latter, he might be able to pick up a minor piece in the Classic at a huge price if the race falls apart a little late. If he runs in the BC Marathon, he could be formidable.
4. A. U. Miner - well back early, made a nice run and finished well without ever being a threat. Should be a contender in the BC Marathon.
Friday, September 9, 2011
The Forego - September 3, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 112
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Very Fast Early; Slow Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: The 2011 Forego Stakes was a fairly deep and even matched field, but it lacked true Grade 1 quality sprinters. It was more like a Grade 2 quality field. The very fast early pace set it up for the closers.
Notable Performances:
1. Jackson Bend - Settled near the back of the pack well off the very fast pace, stayed on the rail on the backstretch, moved 2w mid turn to begin his rally, rallied between horses and drew off. Jackson Bend has found a home as a sprinter, but he's also had two excellent trips in a row. He's very sharp, but he'll probably be a good bet against at some point because he's not quite as good as he looks.
2. Jersey Town - Rated inside behind the dueling leaders, 2w turn, came out 4w for the stretch drive, but was out finished. Jersey town had a tricky trip to evaluate. While he was in a great position relative to the duelers, he was also relatively close to the very fast early pace.
3. Aiekenite - Trailed the field while well out on the track on the backstretch, move 4w on the turn, swung out late turn, finished OK on the far outside.
4. Hamazing Destiny - Dueled outside Sidney's Candy in very fractions, hung tough until the last furlong in a good effort. Hamazing Destiny has rated and finished well going short on other occasions. Had he rated here, IMO he would have been right there at the finish. He should be able to beat a very good field with an easier lead or by rating off a very fast pace.
5. Golddigger's Boy - Raced near the rear of the pack, 3w turn, made up some ground.
6. Escrow Kid - Close up chasing the early leaders while wide, hard used 3w to challenge on the turn, tired through the stretch. Escrow Kid had a tough trip being close to the fast pace and wide. He ran fairly well, but he'll probably need a little softer to get into the winners circle.
7. Regal Ransom - Chased the pace on the outside, 3w turn, swung out 5w into the stretch, no response, tired late.
8. Sidney's Candy - Moved up on the inside to contest the early pace, battled along the rail in very fast fractions, but tired in the stretch. Sidney's Candy is a versatile horse, but he does his best running when able to control the pace in middle distance races against a little weaker.
Race Class Par: 112
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Very Fast Early; Slow Average Middle; Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: The 2011 Forego Stakes was a fairly deep and even matched field, but it lacked true Grade 1 quality sprinters. It was more like a Grade 2 quality field. The very fast early pace set it up for the closers.
Notable Performances:
1. Jackson Bend - Settled near the back of the pack well off the very fast pace, stayed on the rail on the backstretch, moved 2w mid turn to begin his rally, rallied between horses and drew off. Jackson Bend has found a home as a sprinter, but he's also had two excellent trips in a row. He's very sharp, but he'll probably be a good bet against at some point because he's not quite as good as he looks.
2. Jersey Town - Rated inside behind the dueling leaders, 2w turn, came out 4w for the stretch drive, but was out finished. Jersey town had a tricky trip to evaluate. While he was in a great position relative to the duelers, he was also relatively close to the very fast early pace.
3. Aiekenite - Trailed the field while well out on the track on the backstretch, move 4w on the turn, swung out late turn, finished OK on the far outside.
4. Hamazing Destiny - Dueled outside Sidney's Candy in very fractions, hung tough until the last furlong in a good effort. Hamazing Destiny has rated and finished well going short on other occasions. Had he rated here, IMO he would have been right there at the finish. He should be able to beat a very good field with an easier lead or by rating off a very fast pace.
5. Golddigger's Boy - Raced near the rear of the pack, 3w turn, made up some ground.
6. Escrow Kid - Close up chasing the early leaders while wide, hard used 3w to challenge on the turn, tired through the stretch. Escrow Kid had a tough trip being close to the fast pace and wide. He ran fairly well, but he'll probably need a little softer to get into the winners circle.
7. Regal Ransom - Chased the pace on the outside, 3w turn, swung out 5w into the stretch, no response, tired late.
8. Sidney's Candy - Moved up on the inside to contest the early pace, battled along the rail in very fast fractions, but tired in the stretch. Sidney's Candy is a versatile horse, but he does his best running when able to control the pace in middle distance races against a little weaker.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
The Woodward - September 3, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 111
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 111
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: In the 2011 Woodward, Havre de Grace put herself on the short list of great mares that have beaten Grade 1 older males over a route of ground. While the quality of the field was not up to the standards of some of the Woodwards of the past, Flat Out appears to be a legitimate Grade 1 older horse. Beating him was no easy task. It took a great mare to do that. Time will tell whether the connections will try the much deeper waters of the Breeders Cup Classic later this year.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled behind horses 3w then 4w first turn, move to challenge 3w second turn, wore down Rule and held the advantage over Flat Out. While Havre de Grace is slowly building a resume befitting a great race mare, I'm not entirely convinced she's better than Flat Out. Her advantageous style keeps her out of duels, but more importantly it often gives her first run over deeper closers when the pace is modest or slow. That advantage contributed to her wins over Blind Luck and may have been the difference in the Woodward. Don't get me wrong, this is great mare with the potential to put herself on the short list of all time greats, but if her connections decide to try the boys in the Classic, she will probably face more competitive circumstances.
2. Flat Out - Settled near the back of the pack, raced 3w on the first turn, rallied 3w on the second turn, got up for the place but could not catch the winner while finishing OK. Not only am I not entirely convinced that Havre de Grace is better than him, I am also not entirely convinced that Tizway will be as effective going 10F as he is going 8F and 9F. Flat Out has not been tested going 10F, but at this stage I have to think he's going to be a major player in the Classic.
3. Rule - Set a modest pace on the inside and held to mid stretch.
4. Mission Impazible - Inside just behind the pace early, moved out 2w to stalk Rule the entire way, weakened late.
6. Gaint Oak - Raced much closer than usual while 2w on both turns, swung out in the stretch, but didn't have his usual kick.
Race Class Par: 114
Race Class Rating: 111
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 111
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest and Fast
Race Comments: In the 2011 Woodward, Havre de Grace put herself on the short list of great mares that have beaten Grade 1 older males over a route of ground. While the quality of the field was not up to the standards of some of the Woodwards of the past, Flat Out appears to be a legitimate Grade 1 older horse. Beating him was no easy task. It took a great mare to do that. Time will tell whether the connections will try the much deeper waters of the Breeders Cup Classic later this year.
Notable Performances:
1. Havre de Grace - Settled behind horses 3w then 4w first turn, move to challenge 3w second turn, wore down Rule and held the advantage over Flat Out. While Havre de Grace is slowly building a resume befitting a great race mare, I'm not entirely convinced she's better than Flat Out. Her advantageous style keeps her out of duels, but more importantly it often gives her first run over deeper closers when the pace is modest or slow. That advantage contributed to her wins over Blind Luck and may have been the difference in the Woodward. Don't get me wrong, this is great mare with the potential to put herself on the short list of all time greats, but if her connections decide to try the boys in the Classic, she will probably face more competitive circumstances.
2. Flat Out - Settled near the back of the pack, raced 3w on the first turn, rallied 3w on the second turn, got up for the place but could not catch the winner while finishing OK. Not only am I not entirely convinced that Havre de Grace is better than him, I am also not entirely convinced that Tizway will be as effective going 10F as he is going 8F and 9F. Flat Out has not been tested going 10F, but at this stage I have to think he's going to be a major player in the Classic.
3. Rule - Set a modest pace on the inside and held to mid stretch.
4. Mission Impazible - Inside just behind the pace early, moved out 2w to stalk Rule the entire way, weakened late.
6. Gaint Oak - Raced much closer than usual while 2w on both turns, swung out in the stretch, but didn't have his usual kick.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
The Travers - August 27, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 10F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102
Pace: Very Fast Early/Average Middle/Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 Travers brought together several of the leading 3YOs in the division, but sub par performances from Shackleford and Coil force me to rate the overall quality of this race as well below average, especially considering that most of the evidence indicates that the crop of routers itself has been on the weak side throughout the spring and summer.
Notable Performances:
1. Stay Thirsty - Showed speed right from the start, raced between horses into the first turn while 2w, allowed Shackleford to take the lead on the backstretch, stalked 2w into the second turn, took the lead and held his advantage. Stay Thirsty has developed nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer. He was much the best here forcing the fast pace and holding the advantage.
2. Rattlesnake Bridge - Dropped back early, raced 2w first turn, slowly worked his way forward on the backstretch, swung 3w on the second turn, then out 4w late turn and finished OK for the runner up spot.
3. J W Blue - Off a beat slow, trailed early, race 2w first turn, moved 3w and then 4w second turn, out 5w, finished OK for the show.
4. Ruler on Ice - Hustled from the gate to get a forward position, used again to maintain position and race with the leaders, dropped back a bit and appeared finished on the second turn, tried to rally again late but raced evenly. IMO, Ruler on Ice was unnecessarily used in the fast pace early. That's two races in a row (see Haskell notes) that may be a little better than they look. While he's probably not a a high level Grade 1 horse, IMO Ruler on Ice is generally underrated and would be especially dangerous on a wet track in the right field.
5. Moonshine Mullin - Race 3w first turn not too far off the fast pace, made a strong bid 3w second turn and weakened. A better effort than it looks.
6. Shackleford - Raced 3w 1st turn, took over on the backstretch and dropped to the inside, weakened late turn and then tired late. Shackleford had a pretty tough trip losing ground while racing with the leaders in a fast pace. That goes double if the outside paths weren't the best place to be like I suspect. However, he's had a very tough campaign with a lot of tough stretch drives. He looks like a tired horse in need of a freshening.
7. Coil - Was over bet off his good trip in the Haskell (see Haskell notes), but showed very little here. This is not the first Bob Baffert horse I've seen run a big race off the plane and then go way off form.
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102
Pace: Very Fast Early/Average Middle/Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 Travers brought together several of the leading 3YOs in the division, but sub par performances from Shackleford and Coil force me to rate the overall quality of this race as well below average, especially considering that most of the evidence indicates that the crop of routers itself has been on the weak side throughout the spring and summer.
Notable Performances:
1. Stay Thirsty - Showed speed right from the start, raced between horses into the first turn while 2w, allowed Shackleford to take the lead on the backstretch, stalked 2w into the second turn, took the lead and held his advantage. Stay Thirsty has developed nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer. He was much the best here forcing the fast pace and holding the advantage.
2. Rattlesnake Bridge - Dropped back early, raced 2w first turn, slowly worked his way forward on the backstretch, swung 3w on the second turn, then out 4w late turn and finished OK for the runner up spot.
3. J W Blue - Off a beat slow, trailed early, race 2w first turn, moved 3w and then 4w second turn, out 5w, finished OK for the show.
4. Ruler on Ice - Hustled from the gate to get a forward position, used again to maintain position and race with the leaders, dropped back a bit and appeared finished on the second turn, tried to rally again late but raced evenly. IMO, Ruler on Ice was unnecessarily used in the fast pace early. That's two races in a row (see Haskell notes) that may be a little better than they look. While he's probably not a a high level Grade 1 horse, IMO Ruler on Ice is generally underrated and would be especially dangerous on a wet track in the right field.
5. Moonshine Mullin - Race 3w first turn not too far off the fast pace, made a strong bid 3w second turn and weakened. A better effort than it looks.
6. Shackleford - Raced 3w 1st turn, took over on the backstretch and dropped to the inside, weakened late turn and then tired late. Shackleford had a pretty tough trip losing ground while racing with the leaders in a fast pace. That goes double if the outside paths weren't the best place to be like I suspect. However, he's had a very tough campaign with a lot of tough stretch drives. He looks like a tired horse in need of a freshening.
7. Coil - Was over bet off his good trip in the Haskell (see Haskell notes), but showed very little here. This is not the first Bob Baffert horse I've seen run a big race off the plane and then go way off form.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The Kings Bishop - August 27, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 108
Race Class Rating: 108
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early/Slow Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 King's Bishop was a solid and deep Grade 1 sprint race for 3 YO colts that included last year's 2YO champion, Uncle Mo. While Uncle Mo wasn't triumphant in his long awaited return, he returned to the top form he displayed last year, missing by a nose in a very good race.
Notable Performances:
1. Caleb's Posse - Dropped back early inside, raced on the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung well out onto the track entering the stretch and closed strongly to just get up. Caleb's Posse is a quality 3YO sprinter, but he got a pretty good trip here.
2. Uncle Mo - Raced well out on the track early on the backstretch behind the early duel, slowly worked his way to about 3 or 4 wide, raced 3w on the turn, came out 4w late turn, rallied to take the lead, drifted in through the stretch, responded to left handed whipping and just missed while finishing well.
Some people were disappointed by the loss, but this was an excellent return. IMO, he was as good as he's ever been. The 64K question going forward is whether he was a great 2 year old that hasn't developed or a great horse whose development was temporarily stalled by some health issues. We'll find out in his next couple of starts.
3. Justin Philip - Dropped back early, raced 2w then 3w on the turn, swung out and finished OK.
4. Dominus - Raced inside behind the early duel, stayed on the rail on the turn, swung out into the stretch but was out finished by the top three. He only picked up the tiring duelers despite a fairly perfect trip. Dominus may be a little better at middle distances against slightly weaker where he can control the pace.
5. Flashpoint - Hustled to showed speed from the inside, dueled with two others while on the rail, tired about mid stretch. Flashpoint looked like the fastest horse early and the track seemed to be playing to inside speed. So this was a somewhat disappointing effort despite the fast pace.
6. Poseidon's Warrior - Pressed the fast pace from the outside, raced 3w on the turn, and tired through the stretch. This was a very tough trip. He pressed the fast pace while losing ground and racing on what was probably not the best part of the race track. Poseidon's Warrior should be able to hand all but the very best 3YO sprinters with a better trip.
7. Runflatout - Dueled between horses in a fast pace and tired through the stretch.
Race Class Par: 108
Race Class Rating: 108
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 107
Pace: Fast Early/Slow Average Middle/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Horses that raced inside and with speed seemed to have an advantage, but any potential bias did not dictate the results
Race Comments: The 2011 King's Bishop was a solid and deep Grade 1 sprint race for 3 YO colts that included last year's 2YO champion, Uncle Mo. While Uncle Mo wasn't triumphant in his long awaited return, he returned to the top form he displayed last year, missing by a nose in a very good race.
Notable Performances:
1. Caleb's Posse - Dropped back early inside, raced on the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung well out onto the track entering the stretch and closed strongly to just get up. Caleb's Posse is a quality 3YO sprinter, but he got a pretty good trip here.
2. Uncle Mo - Raced well out on the track early on the backstretch behind the early duel, slowly worked his way to about 3 or 4 wide, raced 3w on the turn, came out 4w late turn, rallied to take the lead, drifted in through the stretch, responded to left handed whipping and just missed while finishing well.
Some people were disappointed by the loss, but this was an excellent return. IMO, he was as good as he's ever been. The 64K question going forward is whether he was a great 2 year old that hasn't developed or a great horse whose development was temporarily stalled by some health issues. We'll find out in his next couple of starts.
3. Justin Philip - Dropped back early, raced 2w then 3w on the turn, swung out and finished OK.
4. Dominus - Raced inside behind the early duel, stayed on the rail on the turn, swung out into the stretch but was out finished by the top three. He only picked up the tiring duelers despite a fairly perfect trip. Dominus may be a little better at middle distances against slightly weaker where he can control the pace.
5. Flashpoint - Hustled to showed speed from the inside, dueled with two others while on the rail, tired about mid stretch. Flashpoint looked like the fastest horse early and the track seemed to be playing to inside speed. So this was a somewhat disappointing effort despite the fast pace.
6. Poseidon's Warrior - Pressed the fast pace from the outside, raced 3w on the turn, and tired through the stretch. This was a very tough trip. He pressed the fast pace while losing ground and racing on what was probably not the best part of the race track. Poseidon's Warrior should be able to hand all but the very best 3YO sprinters with a better trip.
7. Runflatout - Dueled between horses in a fast pace and tired through the stretch.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
The Alabama - August 20, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 10F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 104
Race Class Rating: 102
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 100
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Not enough evidence to declare a rail bias, but the inside was certainly very good
Race Comments: The 2011 Alabama was a solid Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies in a deep and competitive division
Notable Performances:
1. Royal Delta - Inside behind the leaders, saved ground the entire way, swung out 3w turning for home, wore down the leaders, ducked in through the stretch after clear and drew off. Much like her win in the Black Eyed Susan, Royal Delta got a perfect trip. As I suggested in my review of the CCAO, she was a short horse and very likely to improve (and she clearly did), but I don't think there's much (if any) gap between her and It's Tricky. The combination of the trip and 10F distance was the difference today.
2. It's Tricky - Needlessly kept an extra path wide on the first turn (3w) despite the fact that the inside part of the track seemed to be advantageous, followed Plum Pretty well out on the track in the back stretch, was moved a bit prematurely to challenge her 2w on the second turn, battled gamely until the 1/8th pole, but could not hold off the winner. Despite this result and the improvement from Royal Delta, I still believe It's Tricky may be the most talented 3YO filly in the country with a more neutral trip (especially between 8F-9F). At the very least, the top two are much closer than the margin in this race.
3. Pinch Pie - Rail first turn, moved out to about 3w backstretch, inside off the rail second turn about 2w, picked up a tiring Plum Pretty for 3rd.
4. Plum Pretty - Set the pace out on the track, 2w then inside but off the rail first turn, set a comfortable pace about 3w in the backstretch, was joined by It's Tricky while on the inside heading into the second turn, battled until the 1/8th pole and tired. Plum Pretty is a high quality filly, she just doesn't want to go this far.
5. St. John's River - rated 2w first turn, was taken well out on the track on the backstretch, 3w second turn, could not rally. Not many horses ran well on the outside today and the fast middle didn't make it much easier to gain. While it's not clear there was strong inside bias because of the small sample, it might make sense to give St. John's River a pass for this race if she faces weaker.
6. Inglorious - rated 3w first turn, was taken well out on the track in the backstretch, could not keep up on the second turn, moved inside, but kept dropping back. Inglorious's dirt form was somewhat suspect coming into this race, but I certainly didn't expect something this bad.
Race Class Par: 104
Race Class Rating: 102
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 100
Pace: Slow Early/Fast Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Not enough evidence to declare a rail bias, but the inside was certainly very good
Race Comments: The 2011 Alabama was a solid Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies in a deep and competitive division
Notable Performances:
1. Royal Delta - Inside behind the leaders, saved ground the entire way, swung out 3w turning for home, wore down the leaders, ducked in through the stretch after clear and drew off. Much like her win in the Black Eyed Susan, Royal Delta got a perfect trip. As I suggested in my review of the CCAO, she was a short horse and very likely to improve (and she clearly did), but I don't think there's much (if any) gap between her and It's Tricky. The combination of the trip and 10F distance was the difference today.
2. It's Tricky - Needlessly kept an extra path wide on the first turn (3w) despite the fact that the inside part of the track seemed to be advantageous, followed Plum Pretty well out on the track in the back stretch, was moved a bit prematurely to challenge her 2w on the second turn, battled gamely until the 1/8th pole, but could not hold off the winner. Despite this result and the improvement from Royal Delta, I still believe It's Tricky may be the most talented 3YO filly in the country with a more neutral trip (especially between 8F-9F). At the very least, the top two are much closer than the margin in this race.
3. Pinch Pie - Rail first turn, moved out to about 3w backstretch, inside off the rail second turn about 2w, picked up a tiring Plum Pretty for 3rd.
4. Plum Pretty - Set the pace out on the track, 2w then inside but off the rail first turn, set a comfortable pace about 3w in the backstretch, was joined by It's Tricky while on the inside heading into the second turn, battled until the 1/8th pole and tired. Plum Pretty is a high quality filly, she just doesn't want to go this far.
5. St. John's River - rated 2w first turn, was taken well out on the track on the backstretch, 3w second turn, could not rally. Not many horses ran well on the outside today and the fast middle didn't make it much easier to gain. While it's not clear there was strong inside bias because of the small sample, it might make sense to give St. John's River a pass for this race if she faces weaker.
6. Inglorious - rated 3w first turn, was taken well out on the track in the backstretch, could not keep up on the second turn, moved inside, but kept dropping back. Inglorious's dirt form was somewhat suspect coming into this race, but I certainly didn't expect something this bad.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
The Test - August 6th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 7F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: The 2011 Test was a solid and honestly run Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies.
Notable Performances:
1. Turbulent Descent - Settled off the leaders while well out on the track on the backstretch, ranged up 4w/3w on the turn without being asked for her best, drew off under a full hand ride. This is a very versatile filly that has done some serious running on synthetics, dirt, and off tracks going short and long. IMO, she's a major competitor for the division title with It's Tricky, Zazu, Plum Pretty, and possibly R Heat Lightning when she returns.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - Broke sharply, settled on the outside stalking the quality speed, 3w/2w turn, could not stay with Turbulent Descent when the winner rallied outside of her, but earned the place.
3. Roman Treasure - Shook loose and set a solid pace inside just off the rail, offered no resistance to the winner in the stretch and weakened in the last furlong. May be able to beat a solid field going 6F.
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 103
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Fast/Average Early, Slow/Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: The 2011 Test was a solid and honestly run Grade 1 race for 3 YO fillies.
Notable Performances:
1. Turbulent Descent - Settled off the leaders while well out on the track on the backstretch, ranged up 4w/3w on the turn without being asked for her best, drew off under a full hand ride. This is a very versatile filly that has done some serious running on synthetics, dirt, and off tracks going short and long. IMO, she's a major competitor for the division title with It's Tricky, Zazu, Plum Pretty, and possibly R Heat Lightning when she returns.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - Broke sharply, settled on the outside stalking the quality speed, 3w/2w turn, could not stay with Turbulent Descent when the winner rallied outside of her, but earned the place.
3. Roman Treasure - Shook loose and set a solid pace inside just off the rail, offered no resistance to the winner in the stretch and weakened in the last furlong. May be able to beat a solid field going 6F.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Whitney Handicap - August 6th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3&up Colts, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 115
Race Class Rating: 113
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: While there were no champions in the race, the 2011 Whitney Handicap was the best field of older horses assembled so far in 2011. The deep field left many decent horses well beaten on the dull and slow track. Tizway has clearly moved to the top of the division. If he holds this form through the end of the year, the only thing standing between him and Horse of the Year is beating a quality field in a competitively run race at 10F race in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Right now, none of the 3YOs look ready to take him on.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - 3w stalking first turn, 3w second turn, took command turning for home and was never threatened. Best older horse in America.
2. Flat Out - Saved ground the whole way, swung out into the stretch., closed well, but was no match. This performance further verified my view that his against the bias performance in the Stephen Foster was better than it looked and his win in the Suburban was no fluke.
http://classhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/stephen-foster-handicap-june-18th-2011.html
3. Giant Oak - Raced inside but off the rail first turn, swung way out on the in the backstretch, raced about 3w second turn, came out further late turn and finished well to get the show spot. Giant Oak often makes a nice late run in these major stakes races, but his style leaves him a lot to do and he simply doesn't have enough ability to win a high level race without some help from tiring pace setters.
4. Rodman - Race inside, was steadied multiple times and appeared rank early in the race, settled down, but had nothing at the end. It might make some sense to shorten Rodman up and look for softer spots. I don't think he can contend against this quality going 9F.
5. Rail Trip - 4w then 3w first turn while racing in the second flight, moved 3w on the second turn into contention, but flattened out and faded. It was easy to excuse Rail Trip's poor performance in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup due to physical issues and lost training. His disappointing efforts so far this year are less easy to forgive. At this point it seems clear that either Rail Trip still has some physical issues or he is simply a better horse on CA's synthetic tracks. While the competition out there may have been a little easier last year (and this year), IMO he performed better last year than right now. It might make some sense to send him back to CA and look for easier spots on his preferred surface.
Race Class Par: 115
Race Class Rating: 113
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Dull fast track with no clear bias
Race Comments: While there were no champions in the race, the 2011 Whitney Handicap was the best field of older horses assembled so far in 2011. The deep field left many decent horses well beaten on the dull and slow track. Tizway has clearly moved to the top of the division. If he holds this form through the end of the year, the only thing standing between him and Horse of the Year is beating a quality field in a competitively run race at 10F race in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Right now, none of the 3YOs look ready to take him on.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - 3w stalking first turn, 3w second turn, took command turning for home and was never threatened. Best older horse in America.
2. Flat Out - Saved ground the whole way, swung out into the stretch., closed well, but was no match. This performance further verified my view that his against the bias performance in the Stephen Foster was better than it looked and his win in the Suburban was no fluke.
http://classhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/stephen-foster-handicap-june-18th-2011.html
3. Giant Oak - Raced inside but off the rail first turn, swung way out on the in the backstretch, raced about 3w second turn, came out further late turn and finished well to get the show spot. Giant Oak often makes a nice late run in these major stakes races, but his style leaves him a lot to do and he simply doesn't have enough ability to win a high level race without some help from tiring pace setters.
4. Rodman - Race inside, was steadied multiple times and appeared rank early in the race, settled down, but had nothing at the end. It might make some sense to shorten Rodman up and look for softer spots. I don't think he can contend against this quality going 9F.
5. Rail Trip - 4w then 3w first turn while racing in the second flight, moved 3w on the second turn into contention, but flattened out and faded. It was easy to excuse Rail Trip's poor performance in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup due to physical issues and lost training. His disappointing efforts so far this year are less easy to forgive. At this point it seems clear that either Rail Trip still has some physical issues or he is simply a better horse on CA's synthetic tracks. While the competition out there may have been a little easier last year (and this year), IMO he performed better last year than right now. It might make some sense to send him back to CA and look for easier spots on his preferred surface.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The Haskell Invitational - July 31, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Colts, 9F, Dirt, Monmouth
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Average Early, Average/Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Outside paths and closers seemed to have a mild edge
Race Comments: The Preakness and Belmont winners were joined by several other improving minor Graded Stakes winners for the 2011 Haskel Invitational. Surprisingly, the race came up very slow. It was so slow, that based on the final time it was approximately equal to a limited winner ALW race.
Usually both a qualitative analysis of a field and its pace/final time figures will suggest very similar things about how strong a race was, but not always. This is one of those cases. My experience suggests that as long as the abilities of the horses are fairly well known, a qualitative approach tends to prove more accurate down the line. It's not always easy to explain away a slow final time like this. Usually it's an extreme pace, but that wasn't the case here. Pending how some of these horses run next time out, I am unwilling to accept that this was a limited ALW caliber quality field. It may not have been up to typical Haskell standards given that the 3YO crop is a little on the weak side, but I expect several of these horses to rebound with faster performances next time out that are more indicative of their true quality.
Notable Performances:
1. Coil - Off a little slow, on the rail in the stretch the first time and on the first turn, came out on the backstretch, rallied 4w 2nd turn, came out further late turn, got up late. Impressive race visually, but he may have been on the better part of the track for his rally. It's hard to gauge him. He's clearly good and improving, but he may not be quite as good as this race looked. The track favored his trip.
2. Shackleford - 2w/3w first turn, stalked on the outside backstretch, moved a bit early to contest the lead heading into the 2nd turn, 3w 2nd turn to put away Joe Vann and Concealed Identity to take the lead into the stretch, responded gamely when challenged, but fell short. Another game effort on a track that may not have favored his speed.
3. Ruler on Ice - 2w/3w first turn, rated on the outside backstretch, rallied 3w second turn, was moving well when he shifted to the inside in the stretch, seemed to hang just a little once he got in there. Given that the inside paths may not have been the best place to be, Ruler on Ice could finish better next time out in an improved effort.
4. J Js Lucky Train - 3w/4w first turn just off the pace, moved 4w 2nd turn to challenge, but could not sustain his bid while weakening slightly.
5. Joe Vann - moved to the lead on the rail in the stretch first time, was kept off the rail on the turn and backstretch while setting the pace, tired through the stretch. Joe Vann should run better next time (especially against weaker) given that he set the pace and spent some time inside on a track was not playing that way.
6. Concealed Identity - raced along the rail first turn, made a nice bid on the rail on the backstretch to get into serious contention, dropped back and tired on the turn. Concealed Identity almost certainly ran better than it looks on paper given that he was inside for all the serious running , but will have to seek weaker competition to reach the winners circle. Worth following.
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Average Early, Average/Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Outside paths and closers seemed to have a mild edge
Race Comments: The Preakness and Belmont winners were joined by several other improving minor Graded Stakes winners for the 2011 Haskel Invitational. Surprisingly, the race came up very slow. It was so slow, that based on the final time it was approximately equal to a limited winner ALW race.
Usually both a qualitative analysis of a field and its pace/final time figures will suggest very similar things about how strong a race was, but not always. This is one of those cases. My experience suggests that as long as the abilities of the horses are fairly well known, a qualitative approach tends to prove more accurate down the line. It's not always easy to explain away a slow final time like this. Usually it's an extreme pace, but that wasn't the case here. Pending how some of these horses run next time out, I am unwilling to accept that this was a limited ALW caliber quality field. It may not have been up to typical Haskell standards given that the 3YO crop is a little on the weak side, but I expect several of these horses to rebound with faster performances next time out that are more indicative of their true quality.
Notable Performances:
1. Coil - Off a little slow, on the rail in the stretch the first time and on the first turn, came out on the backstretch, rallied 4w 2nd turn, came out further late turn, got up late. Impressive race visually, but he may have been on the better part of the track for his rally. It's hard to gauge him. He's clearly good and improving, but he may not be quite as good as this race looked. The track favored his trip.
2. Shackleford - 2w/3w first turn, stalked on the outside backstretch, moved a bit early to contest the lead heading into the 2nd turn, 3w 2nd turn to put away Joe Vann and Concealed Identity to take the lead into the stretch, responded gamely when challenged, but fell short. Another game effort on a track that may not have favored his speed.
3. Ruler on Ice - 2w/3w first turn, rated on the outside backstretch, rallied 3w second turn, was moving well when he shifted to the inside in the stretch, seemed to hang just a little once he got in there. Given that the inside paths may not have been the best place to be, Ruler on Ice could finish better next time out in an improved effort.
4. J Js Lucky Train - 3w/4w first turn just off the pace, moved 4w 2nd turn to challenge, but could not sustain his bid while weakening slightly.
5. Joe Vann - moved to the lead on the rail in the stretch first time, was kept off the rail on the turn and backstretch while setting the pace, tired through the stretch. Joe Vann should run better next time (especially against weaker) given that he set the pace and spent some time inside on a track was not playing that way.
6. Concealed Identity - raced along the rail first turn, made a nice bid on the rail on the backstretch to get into serious contention, dropped back and tired on the turn. Concealed Identity almost certainly ran better than it looks on paper given that he was inside for all the serious running , but will have to seek weaker competition to reach the winners circle. Worth following.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Coaching Club American Oaks - July 23, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO Fillies, 9F, Dirt, Saratoga
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 100
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Average Early, Fast/Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 CCA Oaks was a small but very high quality Grade 1 field. Most of the major players in the division were in the race. R heat Lighting (who is back in training for Todd Pletcher), Turbulent Descent, Zazu, and St. Johns River were missing, but all but R Heat Lighting have been beaten by horses in this field on dirt.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - In my review of the Acorn Stakes, I suggested that It's Tricky had moved to the head of the division (at least until R Heat Lighting gets a chance to show where she fits). In the CCA Oaks she did nothing to change that view. IMO, the $10.60 payoff was a gift. It's Tricky stalked 3w first turn, 2w second turn, and slowly wore down pace setting Plum Pretty late in an excellent performance.
2. Plum Pretty - 2w first turn, set the pace in hand while It's Tricky remained close, very game until deep stretch. Plum Pretty is probably as good as anyone going 8F or 8.5F, but 9F does not appear to be her optimal distance at this stage.
3. Royal Delta - 3w first turn while trailing the field, rallied 2w second turn, swung out, but could not threaten the top two. IMO Royal Delta was over bet off an easy trip win at Pimlico in the Black Eyed Susan. However, she missed some training heading into this race, could be sharper for the Alabama, and may make it more of a race at 10F.
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 100
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Average Early, Fast/Average Middle, Average Late
Track Condition and Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 CCA Oaks was a small but very high quality Grade 1 field. Most of the major players in the division were in the race. R heat Lighting (who is back in training for Todd Pletcher), Turbulent Descent, Zazu, and St. Johns River were missing, but all but R Heat Lighting have been beaten by horses in this field on dirt.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - In my review of the Acorn Stakes, I suggested that It's Tricky had moved to the head of the division (at least until R Heat Lighting gets a chance to show where she fits). In the CCA Oaks she did nothing to change that view. IMO, the $10.60 payoff was a gift. It's Tricky stalked 3w first turn, 2w second turn, and slowly wore down pace setting Plum Pretty late in an excellent performance.
2. Plum Pretty - 2w first turn, set the pace in hand while It's Tricky remained close, very game until deep stretch. Plum Pretty is probably as good as anyone going 8F or 8.5F, but 9F does not appear to be her optimal distance at this stage.
3. Royal Delta - 3w first turn while trailing the field, rallied 2w second turn, swung out, but could not threaten the top two. IMO Royal Delta was over bet off an easy trip win at Pimlico in the Black Eyed Susan. However, she missed some training heading into this race, could be sharper for the Alabama, and may make it more of a race at 10F.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Delaware Handicap - July 16th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 2, 3+ Fillies and Mares, 10F, Dirt, Delaware Park
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 104
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Fast Late
Track Condition and Bias: The rail may not have been the best part of the track
Race Comments: IMO the Delaware Handicap deserves Grade 1 status. The large purse typically attracts a very strong field of fillies and mares and this year was no different. While this field was not especially deep in talent, both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are outstanding, if not great mares. They put on quite a show.
I came away with mixed feelings about which of the two is the better horse right now. Blind Luck seems to be the faster horse late and gets the best of her rival unless the pace is slow or she is given just too much to do late. But this time I think had Ramon Dominguez moved aggressively just a tad sooner on Havre de Grace, he may have been able to hold her off. Clearly he was hoping to save some horse for the finish, but Havre de Grace did not go out after the finish like a horse that was "done" at the wire. So I suspect had he moved hard just a little sooner he may have put a bigger gap between himself and Blind Luck turning for home and finished just as well late. Harve de Grace has a tactical advantage as the first mover, but you have to use it to take advantage of it. All I can say is I can hardly wait to see the rematch to find out more.
Notable Performances:
1. Blind Luck - settled near the back of the pack outside, moved a little earlier than usual on the backstretch to stay within striking distance, settled again, made an impressive 3 wide move to get close to Havre de Grace turning for home and outgamed her rival in deep stretch in a terrific performance.
2. Havre de Grace - settled into 3rd position, was 3 then 2 wide first turn, moved 3 then 2 wide on the second turn to take over without being asked for her best, seemed to wait on Blind Luck slightly until the quarter pole even though that one was already being hard ridden to gain on her, and then was outgamed late while finishing on the inside in a terrific performance.
3. Life At Ten - set a mildly pressured pace while on the inside and tired badly. She's not nearly what she used to be, but the rail may not have been the best part of the track. In any event, she was never going to contend against the top two.
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 104
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Fast Late
Track Condition and Bias: The rail may not have been the best part of the track
Race Comments: IMO the Delaware Handicap deserves Grade 1 status. The large purse typically attracts a very strong field of fillies and mares and this year was no different. While this field was not especially deep in talent, both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are outstanding, if not great mares. They put on quite a show.
I came away with mixed feelings about which of the two is the better horse right now. Blind Luck seems to be the faster horse late and gets the best of her rival unless the pace is slow or she is given just too much to do late. But this time I think had Ramon Dominguez moved aggressively just a tad sooner on Havre de Grace, he may have been able to hold her off. Clearly he was hoping to save some horse for the finish, but Havre de Grace did not go out after the finish like a horse that was "done" at the wire. So I suspect had he moved hard just a little sooner he may have put a bigger gap between himself and Blind Luck turning for home and finished just as well late. Harve de Grace has a tactical advantage as the first mover, but you have to use it to take advantage of it. All I can say is I can hardly wait to see the rematch to find out more.
Notable Performances:
1. Blind Luck - settled near the back of the pack outside, moved a little earlier than usual on the backstretch to stay within striking distance, settled again, made an impressive 3 wide move to get close to Havre de Grace turning for home and outgamed her rival in deep stretch in a terrific performance.
2. Havre de Grace - settled into 3rd position, was 3 then 2 wide first turn, moved 3 then 2 wide on the second turn to take over without being asked for her best, seemed to wait on Blind Luck slightly until the quarter pole even though that one was already being hard ridden to gain on her, and then was outgamed late while finishing on the inside in a terrific performance.
3. Life At Ten - set a mildly pressured pace while on the inside and tired badly. She's not nearly what she used to be, but the rail may not have been the best part of the track. In any event, she was never going to contend against the top two.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Princess Rooney Handicap - July 9th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, Fillies and Mares, 6F, Dirt, Calder
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 99
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 96
Pace: Very Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Drying out track rated as GD seemed Honest
Race Comments: The Princess Rooney is often a very strong Grade 1 sprint for fillies and mares, but this year's edition came up a little weak from a quality perspective. Other than Sassy Image, Champagne d'Oro (who was racing off a layoff) and perhaps Derwin's Star, there weren't any competitors with Graded Stakes caliber credentials.
The pace was blistering fast. Nearly everyone that raced close up early tired badly. Every horse in the race made some kind of move into serious contention at some point (either early, coming out of the turn, or late). So while the race may not have been up to normal Grade 1 Princess Rooney standards, it was a very competitively run race and almost certainly better than most final time speed figures would suggest.
Notable Performances:
1. Sassy Image - looked hopelessly beaten while very wide into the stretch but got up very late on the far outside.
2. Musical Romance - well off the pace, 3 or 4 wide turn, split horses mid stretch to take command, caught late.
3. Indulgence - well off the pace, 2 wide turn to rally into contention, briefly waited for room behind horses, made a sharp move to the outside mid stretch to make her run, but was outfinished
4. Stephanie Got Even - saved ground, rallied up the rail into contention, but was outfinished
5. Champagne d'Oro - sat a couple of lengths behind the 3 way battle up front while probably still too close to the hot pace, remained inside but off the rail, made a bid between horses mid stretch but weakened. This could set her up for a top effort at Saratoga (or elsewhere) 2nd off the layoff.
6. Jehan - well off the pace 3 wide, swung out 5-6 wide into the stretch, took the lead, but was outfinished
7. Cosmo Girl - hard used inside setting the pace, hung around until mid stretch. Should be tough against lesser.
8. Derwin's Star - in good position off the pace, moved outside Champagne d'Oro on the turn, swung 4 wide late turn to get into contention but weakened
9. Bella Moneta - hard used stalking the pace in the 2W, tired
10. Don'ttalktome - hard used stalking the pace 3W, tired
Race Class Par: 103
Race Class Rating: 99
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 96
Pace: Very Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow Late
Track Condition and Bias: Drying out track rated as GD seemed Honest
Race Comments: The Princess Rooney is often a very strong Grade 1 sprint for fillies and mares, but this year's edition came up a little weak from a quality perspective. Other than Sassy Image, Champagne d'Oro (who was racing off a layoff) and perhaps Derwin's Star, there weren't any competitors with Graded Stakes caliber credentials.
The pace was blistering fast. Nearly everyone that raced close up early tired badly. Every horse in the race made some kind of move into serious contention at some point (either early, coming out of the turn, or late). So while the race may not have been up to normal Grade 1 Princess Rooney standards, it was a very competitively run race and almost certainly better than most final time speed figures would suggest.
Notable Performances:
1. Sassy Image - looked hopelessly beaten while very wide into the stretch but got up very late on the far outside.
2. Musical Romance - well off the pace, 3 or 4 wide turn, split horses mid stretch to take command, caught late.
3. Indulgence - well off the pace, 2 wide turn to rally into contention, briefly waited for room behind horses, made a sharp move to the outside mid stretch to make her run, but was outfinished
4. Stephanie Got Even - saved ground, rallied up the rail into contention, but was outfinished
5. Champagne d'Oro - sat a couple of lengths behind the 3 way battle up front while probably still too close to the hot pace, remained inside but off the rail, made a bid between horses mid stretch but weakened. This could set her up for a top effort at Saratoga (or elsewhere) 2nd off the layoff.
6. Jehan - well off the pace 3 wide, swung out 5-6 wide into the stretch, took the lead, but was outfinished
7. Cosmo Girl - hard used inside setting the pace, hung around until mid stretch. Should be tough against lesser.
8. Derwin's Star - in good position off the pace, moved outside Champagne d'Oro on the turn, swung 4 wide late turn to get into contention but weakened
9. Bella Moneta - hard used stalking the pace in the 2W, tired
10. Don'ttalktome - hard used stalking the pace 3W, tired
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
The Prioress - July 4th 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 6F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 100
Race Class Rating: 94
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 95
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite the Grade 1 designation, The Prioress was more of a solid Grade 2 prep for the typically deep and strong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga next month. The field was loaded with quality early speed and the expected fast pace compromised the chances of several of the contenders. No one really distinguished themselves in this race.
Notable Performances:
1. Her Smile - rated off the fast pace off the rail, swung out a little for the stretch drive, ducked back to the rail in the stretch, took the lead, and held Pomeroy's Pistol safe.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - rated off the fast pace 2/3w, came out further late turn, finished OK
3. Roman Treasure - bobbled slightly at the start, set a fast pressured pace inside and tired.
4. Quantum Miss - stalked the fast pace just outside Roman Treasure and was starting to weaken when her rider lost the whip.
5. Alienation - rated just off the fast pace 3w, moved on the turn to stay with the top two, poked a head in front, but weakened.
6. Our Year - hard used chasing the fast pace, remained in contention for about 3 furlongs, tired, and was not used through the stretch. This will look like a very ugly line in her PPs, but she was overmatched in this spot and can be competitive in ALW races
Race Class Par: 100
Race Class Rating: 94
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 95
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Slow/Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite the Grade 1 designation, The Prioress was more of a solid Grade 2 prep for the typically deep and strong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga next month. The field was loaded with quality early speed and the expected fast pace compromised the chances of several of the contenders. No one really distinguished themselves in this race.
Notable Performances:
1. Her Smile - rated off the fast pace off the rail, swung out a little for the stretch drive, ducked back to the rail in the stretch, took the lead, and held Pomeroy's Pistol safe.
2. Pomeroy's Pistol - rated off the fast pace 2/3w, came out further late turn, finished OK
3. Roman Treasure - bobbled slightly at the start, set a fast pressured pace inside and tired.
4. Quantum Miss - stalked the fast pace just outside Roman Treasure and was starting to weaken when her rider lost the whip.
5. Alienation - rated just off the fast pace 3w, moved on the turn to stay with the top two, poked a head in front, but weakened.
6. Our Year - hard used chasing the fast pace, remained in contention for about 3 furlongs, tired, and was not used through the stretch. This will look like a very ugly line in her PPs, but she was overmatched in this spot and can be competitive in ALW races
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Mother Goose - June 25th 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 8.5F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 93
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 93.5
Pace: Slow/Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite a deep and strong 3YO filly division, the absence of several of the leaders of the division made the 2011 Mother Goose more a solid Grade 2 event than a legitimate Grade 1 race.
Notable Performances:
1. Buster's Ready - much improved filly staked the pace 2 wide turn and out kicked the others through the stretch impressively.
2. Joyful Victory - sat behind horses 2 wide turn, swung out 4 wide late turn for the stretch run, wore down R Gypsy Gold for the place late, but didn't have near the kick of the winner. This was a somewhat disappointing effort coming off two big wins against weaker and a decent 4th in a solid Kentucky Oaks field despite racing on a bad rail for some of the race.
3. R Gypsy Gold - stalked to the pace 3 wide turn and just failed to hold the place against Joyful Victory in a good effort.
Race Class Par: 98
Race Class Rating: 93
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 93.5
Pace: Slow/Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Despite a deep and strong 3YO filly division, the absence of several of the leaders of the division made the 2011 Mother Goose more a solid Grade 2 event than a legitimate Grade 1 race.
Notable Performances:
1. Buster's Ready - much improved filly staked the pace 2 wide turn and out kicked the others through the stretch impressively.
2. Joyful Victory - sat behind horses 2 wide turn, swung out 4 wide late turn for the stretch run, wore down R Gypsy Gold for the place late, but didn't have near the kick of the winner. This was a somewhat disappointing effort coming off two big wins against weaker and a decent 4th in a solid Kentucky Oaks field despite racing on a bad rail for some of the race.
3. R Gypsy Gold - stalked to the pace 3 wide turn and just failed to hold the place against Joyful Victory in a good effort.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Stephen Foster Handicap - June 18th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, 9F, Dirt, Churchill Downs
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: The track was sloppy and sealed for races 1-8, upgraded to good for race 10, and upgraded to fast for the Stephen Foster. Given the changing track conditions, it's difficult to come to a strong conclusion about a track bias, but it did appear that a few jockeys avoided the rail instead of saving ground. Horses that raced well out on the track didn't appear to be disadvantaged despite the ground loss. It will probably be worth while following horses that raced on the rail to see if they come back with improved performances. It wasn't death in there, but it may not have been the best place to be. The track may have had some moisture in it despite being rated fast.
Race Comments: The 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap was more of a very deep Grade 2 event featuring many horses of similar ability than a legitimate high level Grade 1.
Notable Performances:
1. Pool Play inside but off the rail first turn, swung out and started his rally very wide mid second turn, looped the field and wound up 9 wide or more late turn, up late. Pool Play has been a Grade 3 turf performer (at best) prior to his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster. He may have found a new and better home on dirt, but I'd like to see one more before being certain.
2. Mission Impazible was 4 then 3 wide first turn just off the pace from the 11 post, stalked the pace of Regal Ransom wide second turn without being used, took the lead, repulsed a long strong bid from Duke of Mischief through the stretch and just failed to hold the winner off.
3. Apart inside but off the rail, worked his way outside not far off the pace, rallied outside Mission Impazible, was in tight between horses at a couple points through the stretch while making his bid and finished OK.
4. Duke of Mischief settled near the back of the pack while 3 wide first turn, made a huge 5 then 6 wide bid second turn to put a head in front mid stretch, but hung late.
5. Giant Oak settled at the back of the pack 4 then 3 wide first turn, circled very wide around the second turn and was 7 or 8 wide late turn while making his bid, but did not have enough late while hanging.
6. Flat Out saved ground the whole way, made a very nice bid along the rail to get into serious contention mid stretch, but was out finished. If a determination about a rail bias can be made prior to this one's next effort, he might be worth following.
7. Crown of Thorns went for the early lead along the rail, backed out and moved off the rail while inside behind horses, swung out for the drive, but didn't have much. This one seems to prefer synthetics.
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 103
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: The track was sloppy and sealed for races 1-8, upgraded to good for race 10, and upgraded to fast for the Stephen Foster. Given the changing track conditions, it's difficult to come to a strong conclusion about a track bias, but it did appear that a few jockeys avoided the rail instead of saving ground. Horses that raced well out on the track didn't appear to be disadvantaged despite the ground loss. It will probably be worth while following horses that raced on the rail to see if they come back with improved performances. It wasn't death in there, but it may not have been the best place to be. The track may have had some moisture in it despite being rated fast.
Race Comments: The 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap was more of a very deep Grade 2 event featuring many horses of similar ability than a legitimate high level Grade 1.
Notable Performances:
1. Pool Play inside but off the rail first turn, swung out and started his rally very wide mid second turn, looped the field and wound up 9 wide or more late turn, up late. Pool Play has been a Grade 3 turf performer (at best) prior to his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster. He may have found a new and better home on dirt, but I'd like to see one more before being certain.
2. Mission Impazible was 4 then 3 wide first turn just off the pace from the 11 post, stalked the pace of Regal Ransom wide second turn without being used, took the lead, repulsed a long strong bid from Duke of Mischief through the stretch and just failed to hold the winner off.
3. Apart inside but off the rail, worked his way outside not far off the pace, rallied outside Mission Impazible, was in tight between horses at a couple points through the stretch while making his bid and finished OK.
4. Duke of Mischief settled near the back of the pack while 3 wide first turn, made a huge 5 then 6 wide bid second turn to put a head in front mid stretch, but hung late.
5. Giant Oak settled at the back of the pack 4 then 3 wide first turn, circled very wide around the second turn and was 7 or 8 wide late turn while making his bid, but did not have enough late while hanging.
6. Flat Out saved ground the whole way, made a very nice bid along the rail to get into serious contention mid stretch, but was out finished. If a determination about a rail bias can be made prior to this one's next effort, he might be worth following.
7. Crown of Thorns went for the early lead along the rail, backed out and moved off the rail while inside behind horses, swung out for the drive, but didn't have much. This one seems to prefer synthetics.
Ogden Phipps - June 18th, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3+, F/M, 8.5F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 98
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Fast Early, Average/Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Ogden Phipps Acorn was reduced to a field of 5 with the late scratch of Unrivaled Belle who was expected to be a primary contender. That left the small field as more of a Grade 2 event than the official Grade 1 designation.
Notable Performances:
1. Awesome Maria stalked the fast pace of Absinthe Minded, took over when the latter began to weaken, was immediately joined by Life At Ten, repulsed her bid, and drew clear. 4YO mare is undefeated in 2011 and seems ready to take take on the legitimate leaders of the division. I still rate her a notch below the best.
2. Payton d'Oro sat off the pace not far behind Life At Ten while wide on the backstretch, dropped back off that one into the turn while remaining 3 wide, swung out further late turn and into the stretch and finished well.
3. Life At Ten was off quickly and taken under a snug hold, remained close to the fast pace while 3 wide, made a strong bid 3/4 wide late turn and into the stretch, but weakened. This may have been her best effort so far in 2011, but she's still not near her peak form from 2010.
4. Super Espresso sat inside not too far too off the pace behind horses, moved closer, and finished OK while picking off tired horses. Perfect trip.
Race Class Par: 102
Race Class Rating: 98
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 99
Pace: Fast Early, Average/Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Ogden Phipps Acorn was reduced to a field of 5 with the late scratch of Unrivaled Belle who was expected to be a primary contender. That left the small field as more of a Grade 2 event than the official Grade 1 designation.
Notable Performances:
1. Awesome Maria stalked the fast pace of Absinthe Minded, took over when the latter began to weaken, was immediately joined by Life At Ten, repulsed her bid, and drew clear. 4YO mare is undefeated in 2011 and seems ready to take take on the legitimate leaders of the division. I still rate her a notch below the best.
2. Payton d'Oro sat off the pace not far behind Life At Ten while wide on the backstretch, dropped back off that one into the turn while remaining 3 wide, swung out further late turn and into the stretch and finished well.
3. Life At Ten was off quickly and taken under a snug hold, remained close to the fast pace while 3 wide, made a strong bid 3/4 wide late turn and into the stretch, but weakened. This may have been her best effort so far in 2011, but she's still not near her peak form from 2010.
4. Super Espresso sat inside not too far too off the pace behind horses, moved closer, and finished OK while picking off tired horses. Perfect trip.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
The Acorn Stakes - June 11, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO, F, 8F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 97
Race Class Rating: 97
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Acorn was not an especially deep or high quality edition. Both It's Tricky and Turbulent Descent distinguished themselves as legitimate Grade 1 quality performers, but the large gap between them and the rest of the field partially reflects the lack of quality behind them.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - staked the pace of the speedy Savy Supreme, took over into the stretch, and repulsed the late bid of Turbulent Descent to win decisively in fast time. It's Tricky was very impressive at Aqueduct in NY during the winter before disappointing badly with no obvious excuse in the GP Oaks in Florida. This performance moves her to the top of the class with R Heat Lightning.
2. Turbulent Descent - did nothing to diminish her Grade 1 credentials finishing 2nd, ten lengths ahead of the rest of the field. She just ran into a very good 3YO filly.
Race Class Par: 97
Race Class Rating: 97
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 101
Pace: Fast Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Acorn was not an especially deep or high quality edition. Both It's Tricky and Turbulent Descent distinguished themselves as legitimate Grade 1 quality performers, but the large gap between them and the rest of the field partially reflects the lack of quality behind them.
Notable Performances:
1. It's Tricky - staked the pace of the speedy Savy Supreme, took over into the stretch, and repulsed the late bid of Turbulent Descent to win decisively in fast time. It's Tricky was very impressive at Aqueduct in NY during the winter before disappointing badly with no obvious excuse in the GP Oaks in Florida. This performance moves her to the top of the class with R Heat Lightning.
2. Turbulent Descent - did nothing to diminish her Grade 1 credentials finishing 2nd, ten lengths ahead of the rest of the field. She just ran into a very good 3YO filly.
Belmont Stakes - June 11, 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YOs, 12F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 105
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102.5
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Belmont Stakes contained both the winner of Kentucky Derby and Preakness plus several horses that have been competitive at this level. The track was sealed and sloppy. The combination of the track condition and the always complicating factor of the long distance produced another Belmont upset. I would tend to be forgiving of all sub par performances and mildly skeptical of all high level performance in this race until form is verified in subsequent starts.
Notable Performances:
1. Ruler On Ice - stalked Shackleford's slow/average pace, took over when that one weakened, and held the others safe.
2. Animal Kindom - was bumped and stumbled badly at the start causing the rider to lose his irons, fell far back, made a huge wide run, but hung and weakened late
3. Brilliant Speed - Raced 4 wide on both turns, made a big threatening move into the stretch, could not get by Ruler on Ice and finished evenly late. A very solid race.
Race Class Par: 110
Race Class Rating: 105
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 102.5
Pace: Average Early, Average Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Track sloppy and sealed, honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Belmont Stakes contained both the winner of Kentucky Derby and Preakness plus several horses that have been competitive at this level. The track was sealed and sloppy. The combination of the track condition and the always complicating factor of the long distance produced another Belmont upset. I would tend to be forgiving of all sub par performances and mildly skeptical of all high level performance in this race until form is verified in subsequent starts.
Notable Performances:
1. Ruler On Ice - stalked Shackleford's slow/average pace, took over when that one weakened, and held the others safe.
2. Animal Kindom - was bumped and stumbled badly at the start causing the rider to lose his irons, fell far back, made a huge wide run, but hung and weakened late
3. Brilliant Speed - Raced 4 wide on both turns, made a big threatening move into the stretch, could not get by Ruler on Ice and finished evenly late. A very solid race.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Metropolitan Handicap
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YO & up, 8F, Dirt, Belmont Park
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 112
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Slow Early, Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Long one of the deepest and highest quality Grade 1 races run at Belmont each year, the 2011 Metropolitan Handicap lacked the Grade 1 quality of some of the great editions of the past, but it was still a very deep and talented field of horses.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - Stalked the pace outside Tackleberry, opened up on that rival turning for home, drew off, and finished well. Finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Rodman who was in turn 5 1/2 lengths ahead of a series of solid Grade 2 horses. A very solid Grade 1 performance.
2. Rodman - 2 wide alone off the pace, rallied into contention, ducked to the inside in the stretch and finished very well both time wise and relative to the rest of the closers. He finished 5 1/2 lengths ahead of a series of solid Grade 2 horses in a much improved Grade 1 level performance.
3. Haynesfield - In the second flight, made a 3 wide bid on the turn as the pace picked up, could not sustain it, and tired. Doesn't appear to be as sharp as last year, but this effort was better than it looks on the surface. With a softer more controlling pace scenario, he's still threat against very good horses.
Race Class Par: 111
Race Class Rating: 112
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 112
Pace: Slow Early, Fast Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: Long one of the deepest and highest quality Grade 1 races run at Belmont each year, the 2011 Metropolitan Handicap lacked the Grade 1 quality of some of the great editions of the past, but it was still a very deep and talented field of horses.
Notable Performances:
1. Tizway - Stalked the pace outside Tackleberry, opened up on that rival turning for home, drew off, and finished well. Finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Rodman who was in turn 5 1/2 lengths ahead of a series of solid Grade 2 horses. A very solid Grade 1 performance.
2. Rodman - 2 wide alone off the pace, rallied into contention, ducked to the inside in the stretch and finished very well both time wise and relative to the rest of the closers. He finished 5 1/2 lengths ahead of a series of solid Grade 2 horses in a much improved Grade 1 level performance.
3. Haynesfield - In the second flight, made a 3 wide bid on the turn as the pace picked up, could not sustain it, and tired. Doesn't appear to be as sharp as last year, but this effort was better than it looks on the surface. With a softer more controlling pace scenario, he's still threat against very good horses.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Preakness 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YOs, 9.5F, Dirt, Pimlico
Race Class Par: 109
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 104.5
Pace: Fast Early, Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Preakness was a typically deep Grade 1 race that contained no horses that are truly superior to the Grade 1 designation for this time of year.
Notable Performances:
1. Shackleford - Put away quality sprinter Flashpoint and held gamely when challenged late by Animal Kingdom. Another very game performance.
Race Class Par: 109
Race Class Rating: 106
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 104.5
Pace: Fast Early, Slow Middle, Average Late
Track Bias: Honest
Race Comments: The 2011 Preakness was a typically deep Grade 1 race that contained no horses that are truly superior to the Grade 1 designation for this time of year.
Notable Performances:
1. Shackleford - Put away quality sprinter Flashpoint and held gamely when challenged late by Animal Kingdom. Another very game performance.
Kentucky Derby 2011 - May 7th 2011
Race Conditions: Grade 1, 3YOs, 10F, Dirt, Churchill Downs
Race Class Par: 109
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Slow Early, Fast Middle, Fast Late
Track Bias: Tiring, Rail Mild Negative
Race Comments: The 2011 Kentucky Derby was a typically deep Grade 1 race, but contained no horses that are truly superior to the Grade 1 designation for this time of year and had the notable absence of a couple of the early leaders of the division.
Notable Performances:
1. Shackleford - Set a leisurely pace early, but quickened and then repulsed a bid by Nehro, drew off and weakened late. Held quite well on a track that was unkind to speed
2. Nehro - Moved a bit prematurely to keep close to Shackleford and finished well.
3. Dialed In - Very far back from the moderate early pace. Finished fast enough late to believe he should give a better account of himself in a smaller field with a more average early pace.
Race Class Par: 109
Race Class Rating: 107
Winner's Time/Quality Rating: 105
Pace: Slow Early, Fast Middle, Fast Late
Track Bias: Tiring, Rail Mild Negative
Race Comments: The 2011 Kentucky Derby was a typically deep Grade 1 race, but contained no horses that are truly superior to the Grade 1 designation for this time of year and had the notable absence of a couple of the early leaders of the division.
Notable Performances:
1. Shackleford - Set a leisurely pace early, but quickened and then repulsed a bid by Nehro, drew off and weakened late. Held quite well on a track that was unkind to speed
2. Nehro - Moved a bit prematurely to keep close to Shackleford and finished well.
3. Dialed In - Very far back from the moderate early pace. Finished fast enough late to believe he should give a better account of himself in a smaller field with a more average early pace.
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